Commodity markets continued to show sharp divergences in the final quarter of 2025, with Afreximbank reporting strong rallies in natural gas, lithium, soybeans, aluminium and crude oil, even as cocoa, palm oil, platinum, sugar and silver recorded notable declines.
The trends reflect a complex mix of tight supply conditions, shifting demand patterns and geopolitical disruptions shaping global trade flows.
According to the bank’s November Commodity Market Insights, natural gas was the month’s top performer, supported by rising heating demand and winter supply concerns. Benchmark U.S. futures averaged about $3.57/mmBtu (million British thermal units) in 2025 compared with $2.47 in 2024. Persistent attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea have forced LNG carriers to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, extending shipping times and adding significant transport costs.
Lithium also posted strong gains as supply cuts by major producers narrowed earlier oversupply. The CME lithium carbonate contract surged following mine suspensions in China and the DRC, while spodumene recovered from mid-year lows. Afreximbank noted that demand remains anchored in the electric vehicle sector, which accounted for more than half of global lithium use in 2024 and is projected to reach 75 percent by 2030.
Agricultural markets were similarly mixed. Soybean prices rose on worsening weather conditions in South America and stronger Chinese imports. A renewed commitment by China to purchase at least 12 million tonnes of U.S. soybeans in late 2025, and a minimum of 25 million tonnes annually from 2026 to 2028, further lifted market sentiment.
Aluminium prices firmed on stronger construction and automotive demand and continued supply constraints. Futures in Europe approached three-year highs as energy-related disruptions, regulatory hurdles in Indonesia and production issues in Iceland and Australia kept the market tight. Crude oil stabilised around $60 per barrel, supported by supply concerns following drone attacks on Russian infrastructure and uncertainty linked to U.S. sanctions.
Meanwhile, several commodities experienced steep corrections. Cocoa retreated to about $5,200 per tonne as improved crop prospects in West Africa eased earlier fears of severe supply shortages. Palm oil weakened on sluggish import demand from India and China alongside higher-than-expected output in Southeast Asia. Platinum, sugar and silver also declined amid softer industrial demand, improved weather conditions and profit-taking after earlier rallies.
Afreximbank said the diverging performance underscores the increasingly uneven nature of global commodity markets heading into 2026. It noted that sectors tied to electrification and long-term structural demand, including critical minerals, remain resilient, while markets facing oversupply or subdued consumption may continue to face downward pressure.
