Back from the 2026 IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok with the Ghana delegation led by Hon. Dr Cassiel Ato Forson. Below, I share some reflections from the various panels I participated in and a week of bilateral meetings.
𝟭. 𝗚𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗮’𝘀 𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗻𝗮𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗰𝗮𝘀𝗲 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝗽𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗯𝗲𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗰𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗶𝘀
Ghana’s turnaround is real, and it was built on preparation. Debt is down from over 80 per cent of GDP in 2022 to 45 per cent, inflation from above 50 per cent to under 6 per cent, reserves around five months of import cover. We rebuilt external buffers deliberately and are pre-funding the 2027 to 2028 repayments through a sinking fund and other sources. Internally, PFM reforms put commitment control at the centre: no commitment without an allotment and cash backing, hard fiscal rules, an Independent Fiscal Council and a Value for Money Office. Arrears were one of the back doors to the last crisis. Commitment authorisation has largely helped contain this.
𝟮. 𝗧𝗮𝘅 𝗿𝗲𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗾𝘂𝗶𝗲𝘁 𝗿𝗲𝘃𝗼𝗹𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗼𝗳 𝗔𝗜 𝗶𝗻 𝗮𝗱𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻
Effective tax administration beats new taxes. Publican, our AI-driven customs valuation system, lifted assessed values by more than US$300 million, a 17.5 per cent increase, without a single new rate. AI in tax administration could be one of the low hanging fruits to improve domestic revenue mobilisation and increase fiscal space on the continent.
𝟯. 𝗦𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗶𝗴𝗻 𝗱𝗲𝗯𝘁
On sovereign debt, Ghana’s 2022 restructuring was painful for pensioners, banks and businesses, and we have vowed never to repeat it. The next crisis for many countries may not come from central government borrowing but from other perimeters such as SOEs, take-or-pay power contracts, guarantees. Debt governance must move from counting loans to authorising and pricing risk wherever it sits. Second, the current resolution architecture still treats non-bond creditors as an afterthought in restructurings; comparability of treatment needs a transparent, rules-based test if countries are to exit defaults and recover faster.
𝟰. 𝗔𝗳𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮’𝘀 𝗴𝗿𝗲𝗲𝗻 𝗴𝗿𝗼𝘄𝘁𝗵 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗶𝗻𝗱𝘂𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗽𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗰𝘆
On green growth, most of the tension between development and transition is a constraint, not a trade-off. Green investment becomes transformation only when the state also puts in skin in the game. Ghana’s 𝗡𝗲𝘄 𝗘𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗼𝗺𝘆 𝗣𝗿𝗼𝗴𝗿𝗮𝗺𝗺𝗲 seeks to invest US$10 billion over five years in nine key sectors including textiles and garments, agriculture and agribusiness, pharmaceuticals, and tourism. The programme would be financed from domestic resources rather than borrowing.
𝟱. 𝗔𝗱𝘃𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗔𝗳𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮’𝘀 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗼𝗿𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗨𝗡 𝗙𝗿𝗮𝗺𝗲𝘄𝗼𝗿𝗸 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘃𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗼𝗻 𝗜𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗻𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗧𝗮𝘅 𝗖𝗼𝗼𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻
On the UN Framework Convention on International Tax Cooperation, Africa is negotiating as a rule-maker for the first time. Equitable taxing rights, the digital economy and illicit flows are the priorities. But a convention is only as strong as the administrations that enforce it – this is the point I made on need for enhanced capacity building of state institutions.
𝟲. 𝗕𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗸𝗼𝗸, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗘𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝗔𝘀𝗶𝗮𝗻 𝗺𝗶𝗿𝗿𝗼𝗿
Bangkok itself is the lesson. Thailand rebuilt after 1997 with reserves, local-currency markets and patient industrial policy, and is today a modern ASEAN economy with vibrant services and manufacturing. Sequencing, macro stability first, and FDI tied to local suppliers are lessons Africa can take from the East Asian story.
