Economists and industry experts are sounding a clear alarm: the record-low inflation and cedi stability achieved in 2025 are at risk of collapsing unless the real sector specifically agriculture, trade, and industry experience a massive productivity boost this year. While the Bank of Ghana’s monetary interventions have provided a much-needed shield, experts argue that “starving the system of cash” is not a permanent solution for a healthy economy.
The Limits of Monetary Tightening
The remarkable recovery of the cedi, which surged from nearly GH¢15.80 to GH¢10.60 per dollar in 2025, has been attributed solely to aggressive monetary policy. US-based Monetary Economist Dr. Dennis Nsafoah explains that by strategically withdrawing cedi liquidity and slowing the growth of bank reserves, the Central Bank successfully dampened the demand for foreign exchange.
However, this contraction is a “temporary shield.” Other analysts warn that for this stability to endure, the economy must transition from merely controlling money supply to producing more of what it consumes and exports. Without this shift, any future easing of monetary policy will likely trigger a renewed, disorderly depreciation of the cedi as demand for imports returns.
A Call to Action for the Ministry of Trade Agribusiness and Industry
There is a growing consensus that the Ministry of Trade, Agribusiness, and Industry (MoTAI) must step up its vibrancy to complement the Central Bank’s efforts. As inflation eases significantly, with gradual easing of interest rates, the local industrial sector must be supported to become productive. Policies and programmes that will enable local production to pick up must be aggressively engineered in 2026.
Industry watchers are calling on the Ministry to move beyond its current administrative posture. The “Made in Ghana” drive requires the Ministry to take a proactive lead in making local production competitive through consistent supply and quality control. If local factories cannot meet domestic needs, the pressure on the cedi will inevitably return as the country looks outward to satisfy demand.
Agribusiness and the 24-Hour Economy Pipeline
Agriculture remains the most critical frontier in the fight to sustain low inflation, which recently dropped to 5.4%. To prevent the seasonal price shocks that often derail the nation’s macroeconomic targets, the push for agribusiness must be relentless.
The government’s 24-Hour Economy agenda is viewed as the ideal vehicle for this transformation. By moving from subsistence farming to 24-hour agro-processing units, Ghana can add value to its raw materials and drastically slash the massive import bill for food items. While the “Big Push” infrastructure agenda provides the necessary roads and electricity, it is the actual productivity from these farms and factories that will provide the foreign exchange needed to back the cedi.
Synchronized Growth for a Sustainable Future
To ensure that current gains are not eroded, a synchronized effort is required across all major ministries. The MoTAI must aggressively promote export-led growth, while the Ministry of Food and Agriculture scales up “Feed Ghana” initiatives to anchor food prices.
The message for 2026 is clear: Monetary policy has provided the stability, but only the real sector can provide the substance to keep it. If the growth of bank reserves returns to previous triple-digit levels without a corresponding increase in local production, the nation risks a return to the volatile days of sharp currency depreciation.
