Early voting is well underway across the U.S., with both in-person and mail-in options available, depending on the state. Some states are already sharing early voting data, showing breakdowns by party, age, and voting method.
Meanwhile, financial markets are feeling the weight of the ongoing election. Stocks are holding steady, but currency markets hint at rising tension, with volatility spiking in options like the euro/dollar and dollar-Mexican peso.
Analysts say a Trump win could significantly impact the peso due to his protectionist stance, a sharp contrast to Harris’s globalist approach. Across the globe, investors are bracing for the outcome, knowing it could reshape market trends and economic policy.
In Europe, the STOXX index slipped 0.2%, while Asia-Pacific shares edged up. Cautious investors kept markets quiet, all eyes on the election results.
Currencies, which trade continuously, showed scattered and contradictory moves, revealing little on market sentiment. The dollar softened as traders fine-tuned positions, trading at 152.46 yen and $1.0879 per euro.
“They’ve priced what they think is price-able and that’s that,” said Westpac’s Imre Speizer. He noted that Trump’s win would likely boost the dollar, while Harris might push it slightly lower, each scenario holding unique market risks.
Bitcoin surged 2.7% to $68,884, as traders anticipate a Trump win could mean favorable crypto policies. The currency’s rise adds to the mixed signals across asset classes.
The election caps a contentious campaign marked by Biden’s withdrawal and an attempt on Trump’s life, with polls too close to call. Markets fear that Trump’s protectionism could stoke inflation and disrupt exports, intensifying economic uncertainty.
“Ultimately, the U.S. election comes down to this,” said J.P. Morgan analysts. Voters face a choice between Harris’s focus on economic stability and Trump’s promise of radical trade policy—a vote for continuity or change.
China stands at the front line of tariff risk, its yuan volatility spiking amid trade concerns. The yuan held steady at 7.1083 per dollar, while Chinese stocks rose as investors bet on a favorable policy meeting in Beijing.
China’s CSI300 index rose 2.5%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 1.4%. Investors expect the Beijing meeting to support local debt refinancing, temporarily steadying a tense market.
The Australian dollar remained calm after the central bank held rates, with traders focused on the U.S. election. The Aussie traded at $0.6614, awaiting a clearer market direction.
Citi strategists presented a binary outlook: “If Harris wins, sell dollar/yen, buy AUDUSD. If Trump wins, buy USD against EUR, SEK, and NOK.” Election outcomes thus map onto distinct currency strategies.
In bonds, U.S. 10-year yields held at 4.32%, anticipating a rate cut. German 10-year yields ticked up, nearing recent highs, indicating a cautious global outlook.
Oil prices held steady at $75.24 after a 3% gain, as producers delayed output increases. Uncertainty looms large, with commodity markets tightly linked to election results.
As U.S. results begin post-midnight GMT, battleground states like Georgia and Pennsylvania will be decisive. With Trump hinting at potential legal battles, a clear winner could be days away, extending market tension.
