A major shift in how water is allocated across agriculture could redefine the global food economy, unlock up to 245 million long-term jobs, and position Sub-Saharan Africa as a key growth frontier, according to a new report by the World Bank Group.
The report, titled Nourish and Flourish: Water Solutions to Feed 10 Billion People on a Livable Planet, warns that current agricultural water use, defined by overexploitation in water-scarce regions and underutilisation in water-rich areas, is constraining productivity and limiting the world’s ability to meet rising food demand. In its current state, the system can sustainably feed less than half the global population, even as that population heads toward 10 billion by 2050.
For Sub-Saharan Africa, the imbalance presents a clear economic opening. Vast areas of arable land remain underutilised despite relatively abundant water resources, suggesting strong potential for expanding rainfed agriculture and investing in irrigation. With the right infrastructure and policy support, the region could significantly increase output, reduce import dependence, and strengthen its position in global agricultural trade, all while generating millions of jobs across the value chain.
The report introduces a framework that effectively “reprices” global agriculture by linking water availability to production and trade decisions. In practical terms, this means capital and production are likely to shift toward water-abundant regions, while water-stressed economies increasingly rely on efficiency gains and imports. For agribusiness investors, irrigation firms, and commodity traders, this signals a structural realignment of opportunity.
“The way we manage water for food will have profound implications for jobs, livelihoods, and economic growth. By making smarter choices about where crops are grown, how water is allocated, and how trade supports food security, we can strengthen resilience, expand opportunity, and safeguard the resources which we all rely on,” said Paschal Donohoe, Managing Director and Chief Knowledge Officer of the World Bank Group.
Realising that opportunity will require significant financing. The report estimates that expanding and modernising irrigation systems alone will demand between $24 billion and $70 billion annually through 2050. This sits alongside nearly $490 billion already spent each year on agricultural subsidies, raising questions about how effectively existing public resources are being deployed.
To help drive this transition, the World Bank Group is scaling up its intervention through the AgriConnect initiative, which is designed to move smallholder farming systems from subsistence to surplus production. The programme aims to double annual agribusiness financing to $9 billion by 2030, while mobilising an additional $5 billion in private capital each year, effectively positioning agriculture as a more bankable and investment-ready sector.
This push is reinforced by the Bank’s Water Strategy Implementation Plan, particularly its Water for Food and Water for the Planet pillars, which integrate agricultural productivity with climate resilience and natural resource protection. The approach reflects a growing recognition that water management is no longer a standalone issue, but one that sits at the intersection of food security, economic growth, and environmental sustainability.
A key shift running through the report is the emphasis on private sector participation. Public funding alone, it argues, cannot deliver the scale, innovation, or efficiency required. Instead, the next phase of agricultural transformation will depend on blended finance models, stronger public-private partnerships, and increased farmer co-investment, supported by better access to credit, technology, and markets.
The broader message is clear. Water is fast becoming one of the most decisive economic variables in global food production. How it is allocated will shape not only what is grown and where, but also where jobs are created, capital is deployed, and trade flows in the decades ahead.
For Africa, the convergence of underutilised resources, rising demand, and targeted financing initiatives such as AgriConnect presents a rare opportunity to reposition agriculture as a driver of industrial growth, exports, and employment, if the right investment and policy choices are made.
