The much-touted rally of the Ghana cedi is under serious threat due to the sustained geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Policy think tank, C-NERGY, says the crisis between the US/Israel and Iran could soon trigger a fresh wave of pressure on the Ghanaian economy, warning that surging crude oil prices may undermine the recent stability of the Ghanaian cedi.
In its latest thought leadership analysis, the think tank cautions that escalating conflict in the region could push global oil prices sharply higher, potentially reversing some of the gains recorded by the cedi over the past year.
As of Saturday, the global oil benchmark Brent crude was trading around $87 per barrel, representing an increase of about 8 percent within a single day amid growing fears of supply disruptions.
But according to C-NERGY, the situation could escalate far beyond current levels.
Oil Could Surge to $120 or Higher
The think tank projects that crude oil prices could climb to as high as $120 per barrel, or even beyond, if the conflict in the Middle East intensifies.
The key factor for this projection is the disruption of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical energy corridors.
Roughly 20% of global oil and gas supplies pass through this narrow waterway bordering Iran.
Currently, the strait has been closed by the Iranian forces, pushing the global energy markets to face severe supply shortages, and hence driving prices sharply higher.
Why It Matters for Ghana
For Ghana, the consequences could be immediate and far-reaching. As indicated by the National Petroleum Authority (NPA), although Ghana produces about 180,000 barrels of crude oil per day, the country still depends heavily on imported refined petroleum products to meet domestic demand.
According to C-NERGY, more than 80% of the fuel consumed locally is imported. This means any surge in global oil prices automatically raises the country’s import bill. In 2025 alone, Ghana spent approximately $5.1 billion importing oil and petroleum products.
This means that if crude oil prices climb toward $120 per barrel, that bill could rise sharply.
The Dollar Pressure Problem
Higher oil import costs create another challenge, which is an increased demand for foreign currency.
Oil importers must purchase US dollars to pay for shipments, which increases pressure on the cedi in the foreign exchange market. According to C-NERGY, this dynamic could weaken the currency if not carefully managed.
This increased demand for dollars can place downward pressure on the cedi, particularly during periods of global uncertainty.
“Brent crude price, for instance, jumped by 10% between February 28, 2026, and March 2, 2026, following the first few days of the escalating conflict. Crude oil prices are thus projected to rise to as high as US$ 130 per barrel if the Strait of Hormuz (the crucial waterway which borders Iran, through which about 20% of the world’s oil and gas is shipped) is completely closed,” C-NERGY explained.
It added, “Oil price hikes put upward pressure on demand for US dollars as this would drastically increase Ghana’s oil-related import bill, which stood at US$5.1 billion for 2025.”
A Risk to the Cedi’s Recent Gains
The warning comes at a time when the cedi has enjoyed a notable recovery after years of volatility. However, C-NERGY believes external shocks, particularly from global energy markets, remain a major threat to sustaining that stability.
The think tank notes that the ultimate impact will depend on how the prices of crude oil and refined petroleum products move relative to each other.
If refined fuel prices rise faster than crude, the impact on Ghana’s import costs could be even more severe.
The Bottomline
While the conflict may be unfolding thousands of kilometres away in the Middle East, its economic consequences are quickly reaching households and businesses in Ghana.
Higher oil prices typically translate into higher transport costs, rising fuel prices, and broader inflation across the economy.
C-NERGY believes developments in the Middle East will remain a critical factor to watch in the days ahead by policymakers.
