Cocoa prices have rallied about 20% over the past month, driven by weather-related supply concerns in West Africa and heavy short covering, with the recovery offering potential upside for key producers, including Ghana.
The most active cocoa contract recently traded around $4,099 per tonne, reflecting a strong rebound from earlier lows as traders reacted to shifting weather conditions in major producing regions and a rapid unwinding of bearish positions.
A key driver of the rally has been adverse weather in Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cocoa producer, where heavy rains and localized flooding have disrupted farming activity, transport and near-term supply flows. The market has also been sensitive to broader climate risks, with the potential return of El Niño conditions raising concerns over rainfall patterns in West Africa and crop development in the coming months.
At the same time, short covering by speculators has added momentum to the rally, amplifying price gains even in the absence of a major structural supply shock.
For Ghana, the world’s second-largest cocoa producer, the price rebound comes at a sensitive time for the sector. The government recently set the farmgate price at GH¢41,392 per tonne (GH¢2,587 per 64kg bag) for the 2025/26 season, a level that reflects recent weakness in global prices and ongoing efforts to stabilise farmer incomes.
However, recent gains in the international cocoa market suggest early signs of a potential recovery, with prices showing a 20% rise over the past month on improved weather-related sentiment and speculative positioning.
If sustained, the rebound could offer relief to the sector and improve earnings prospects for the Ghana Cocoa Board (COCOBOD), while also easing pressure on future farmgate pricing decisions and supporting export revenue inflows.
The most active cocoa contract recently traded around $4,099 per tonne, underscoring the extent of the recent recovery from earlier lows.
