OPEC has left its global economic growth forecasts unchanged, saying resilient investment in artificial intelligence, expanding international trade and easing geopolitical tensions are supporting the world economy despite persistent inflation and trade policy uncertainty.
The producer group maintained its forecast for global economic growth at 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027 in its July Monthly Oil Market Report, citing stronger-than-expected activity across major economies during the first half of the year.
The assessment comes as oil markets stabilize following heightened tensions in the Middle East earlier this year and as OPEC+ continues to gradually unwind production cuts amid expectations of stronger oil demand in the second half.
“Potential moderations in geopolitical tensions may provide some upside for global growth in 2H26 if energy markets and trade flows stabilize further, although uncertainties remain,” OPEC said. The organization added that fiscal and structural measures adopted by major economies had helped cushion the impact of higher energy costs and broader uncertainty.
OPEC said non-OECD Asia remained the strongest engine of global growth, supported by investment linked to artificial intelligence, while the U.S. economy continued to expand steadily despite elevated inflation. The euro area is expected to see more modest growth, while Brazil’s commodities sector continues to support activity and Russia has recovered from an economic contraction earlier this year.
The organization forecast U.S. economic growth of 2.2% in 2026, the euro zone at 1.0%, China at 4.6%, India at 6.6%, Brazil at 2.0% and Russia at 1.3%, leaving all projections unchanged from its previous report.
OPEC said global trade has remained resilient despite geopolitical tensions. Trade volumes rose 5% year-on-year in April after expanding 3.1% in March, while the value of global trade increased 9.8% from a year earlier, suggesting continued demand for manufactured goods and commodities.
The report identifies artificial intelligence as an increasingly important driver of global economic activity, saying investment in AI has boosted capital expenditure, semiconductor-related trade, high-value manufacturing and household consumption. Those gains helped offset the effects of energy price volatility and uncertainty surrounding trade policy.
However, OPEC warned that risks remain. The group said investors are closely monitoring U.S. tariff policy after Washington signaled it could introduce a new tariff framework later this month. Inflation also remains uneven across major economies, prompting diverging monetary policy responses from central banks.
The U.S. Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates, while the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan tightened monetary policy in June. Meanwhile, several emerging market central banks have moved in the opposite direction by easing policy to support growth.
For commodity markets, OPEC said the easing of geopolitical risk premiums contributed to an 18.6% month-on-month decline in average crude oil prices in June, although prices remained 18.2% higher than a year earlier. The organization said improved oil supply expectations and softer speculative positioning also weighed on prices.
