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Business & Economy

Cocoa, Palm Oil Lead Declines as Oversupply and Weak Demand Pressure Commodity Markets — Afreximbank

Cocoa saw the sharpest correction, tumbling toward $5,200 per tonne as production prospects improved across West Africa

Cocoa, Palm Oil Lead Declines as Oversupply and Weak Demand Pressure Commodity Markets — Afreximbank
Isaac Kofi Tsoenamawu
Dec 8, 2025

Cocoa, palm oil, platinum, sugar and silver were the weakest performers in global commodity markets in November, reflecting improved supply conditions, softer industrial demand and broader shifts in investor sentiment, according to Afreximbank’s latest Commodity Market Insights.

Cocoa saw the sharpest correction, tumbling toward $5,200 per tonne as production prospects improved across West Africa. Afreximbank said healthier Ivorian crops, favourable drying conditions and rising port arrivals eased earlier fears of extreme supply tightness. The bank noted that expectations of upcoming U.S. tariff reductions also weighed on sentiment, adding pressure to prices that had previously surged to record highs.

Palm oil continued to weaken as sluggish import demand from China and India met strong output from major producers in Southeast Asia. Malaysian inventories climbed to their highest level in more than six years, while palm oil’s recent premium over alternative vegetable oils pushed buyers toward cheaper substitutes. The combination of elevated stocks and muted purchasing kept the market under sustained pressure.

Platinum also declined, falling to about $1,547 per ounce as hawkish signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve dampened investor appetite. Near-term demand from the automotive sector remained weak as electric vehicle adoption reduces reliance on auto catalysts. Although platinum is still supported by structural supply deficits, Afreximbank said subdued industrial activity continued to weigh on prices in the short term.

Sugar prices dropped on the back of strengthening supply conditions in Brazil and India and lower global ethanol demand. Afreximbank highlighted easing weather concerns and an expected surplus of nearly 2 million tonnes in the 2025/26 season, a major turnaround from last year’s deficit. With mills shifting output toward sugar due to lower oil prices, the downward trend intensified.

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Silver rounded out the list of worst performers, retreating after earlier strong gains. The correction was driven by profit-taking and reduced safe-haven demand following U.S. monetary policy signals. Despite the pullback, the bank noted that long-term fundamentals remain firm, with industrial demand from solar power, electric vehicles and advanced electronics continuing to support the market.

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