Ghana’s recent effort to combat cocoa smuggling by increasing the farmgate price may fall short as Ivory Coast plans to raise its cocoa prices. Le Conseil Cafe-Cacao (CCC), Ivory Coast’s cocoa industry regulator, is preparing to set a price between 1,850 CFA and 2,000 CFA per kilogram of well-dried cocoa for the upcoming October main crop, representing a 23% increase. This will equate to between $3,140 (GH¢49,298) and $3,400 (GH¢53,380) per tonne, slightly higher than Ghana’s recent increase to GH¢48,000 per tonne.
Ghana’s cocoa industry, facing significant challenges, saw production plummet to less than 460,000 tonnes in the 2023/24 crop season—the lowest in two decades. The Ghana Cocoa Board (COCOBOD) had initially projected an increase to 800,000 tonnes for the 2024/25 season but has since revised that forecast to 650,000 tonnes. Cocoa smuggling to Ivory Coast and Togo is one of the main factors behind the low production, officials have said.
Ghana had hoped the new farmgate price of GH¢48,000, compared to Ivory Coast’s current GH¢39,580 (1.5 million CFA Francs), would curb smuggling. However, with Ivory Coast’s plans to raise prices by 23%, smuggling could continue. Togo, another neighbouring country, offers significantly higher prices, further incentivizing smuggling across borders.
Earlier this year, cocoa futures soared to record highs, exceeding $11,000 (GH¢172,700) per tonne due to West African harvest shortfalls, though prices have since moderated to over $7,500 (GH¢117,750) per tonne for December contracts in New York. Despite global price hikes, Ghanaian and Ivorian farmers have not fully benefitted from the surge.
While Ghana battles smuggling to Togo and Ivory Coast, the latter also faces smuggling issues with Liberia and Guinea, where cocoa prices are higher, and regulations are looser.
The Ghanaian government hopes the recent price increase will encourage farmers to better care for their farms, ensuring higher yields in future seasons. This could prevent a repeat of the 2024/25 season, when low production forced cocoa processing companies to operate at less than 30% capacity. The shortage also led to price hikes for processed cocoa products, causing a decline in sales for retailers, particularly chocolate vendors, many of whom have switched to other products or stopped selling altogether.
