Commodity markets split sharply in 2025, with cocoa and precious metals outperforming while oil lagged on weak global demand, according to research from the African Export-Import Bank.
Cocoa prices held near $7,000 a metric ton for most of the year, easing slightly toward year-end but remaining elevated by historical standards, Afreximbank’s research unit said in its latest monthly update on Africa’s macroeconomic environment. The sustained strength provided relief for major West African producers, even as broader agricultural markets showed signs of softness.
Oil, by contrast, averaged about $68 a barrel in 2025, weighed down by oversupply and subdued global consumption. The weaker crude market pressured export revenues for energy-dependent African economies and limited fiscal headroom in some producing nations.
Precious metals stood out. Gold averaged above $3,000 an ounce, buoyed by safe-haven demand and expectations of looser global financial conditions. Silver also posted strong gains, reflecting both investor flows and industrial demand tied to the energy transition.
The bank expects the divergence to persist into 2026. Energy and agricultural commodities face downside risks from fragile global growth and ample supply, while precious metals are likely to remain supported by geopolitical tensions and sustained investor appetite for defensive assets.
For African economies, the split represents uneven external conditions, with commodity composition shaping export earnings, fiscal balances and currency stability across the continent.
