Investments in climate adaptation could increase labour income across low- and middle-income countries by the equivalent of 150 million jobs by 2050, offering governments an opportunity to limit the economic damage of rising temperatures, droughts and extreme weather while protecting livelihoods.
The estimate, contained in the World Bank Group’s October 2026 report, Governance for Climate and Development, is based on evidence from Country Climate and Development Reports covering 55 economies. The Bank estimates that adaptation measures could increase labour income by the equivalent of 35 million jobs across those countries, with the figure rising to about 150 million when extrapolated to all low- and middle-income economies based on their working-age populations.
The estimate does not represent 150 million new vacancies. The World Bank’s “more and better-paid jobs” indicator measures changes in labour income as the equivalent number of jobs at the baseline wage. It captures both changes in employment and earnings among people who remain employed.
The findings highlight the economic returns from investments that help workers, businesses and communities adjust to climate risks, particularly in economies where agriculture and other outdoor activities account for a significant share of employment.
Climate change is already expected to reduce employment and earnings by the equivalent of 59 million jobs by 2050 across the 55 economies assessed. Extrapolated across all low- and middle-income countries, the potential loss rises to about 260 million jobs.
The report identifies heat stress as a major channel through which climate change affects labour markets, reducing workers’ ability to work safely and productively. Agriculture faces the greatest productivity losses because much of its work takes place outdoors, followed by industry and services.
Droughts, floods, storms and changing rainfall patterns also threaten employment and incomes. In Zambia, the 2023–24 drought cut maize production by more than half, with knock-on effects on rural incomes and livelihoods.
Adaptation measures could significantly reduce those losses. In Nigeria, interventions including mechanisation, air conditioning, health measures, conservation agriculture and flood-resilient investments are projected to reduce climate-related labour income losses from the equivalent of 13 million jobs to 2 million by 2050.
In Peru, adaptation measures across transport, forestry, agriculture, water, fishing and energy could turn employment and earnings losses equivalent to about 200,000 jobs into gains equivalent to nearly 1 million jobs by 2050.
The report says the economic benefits of adaptation extend beyond preventing climate-related damage. Investments in resilient infrastructure, agriculture, human capital and public services can also support wider economic activity and improve productivity.
However, the potential gains depend on governments’ ability to implement the recommended interventions. The report notes that climate risks are particularly damaging where workers are concentrated in climate-sensitive sectors and have limited access to mechanisation, cooling, formal employment arrangements and other means of adapting their working conditions.
It also warns that adaptation does not eliminate all the economic consequences of climate change. Even after implementing the measures assessed, most countries are projected to retain some losses compared with their baseline economic outcomes.
The findings add to the case for treating climate adaptation as an economic and labour-market priority rather than solely an environmental issue. For developing economies, the challenge will be to direct investment towards infrastructure, agricultural systems and public services that protect workers while supporting more productive economic activity.
