Countries with heavy foreign debt tend to struggle more to protect people from rising food costs when global crises hit, a new World Bank report has found.
The World Bank’s International Debt Report 2026 shows that during major global disruptions, countries carrying higher levels of foreign debt often recorded bigger increases in the number of people unable to afford a healthy diet.
The pattern was particularly noticeable during the COVID-19 pandemic and the global food price increases that followed.
The report compared countries’ foreign debt with their export earnings and found that higher debt levels were generally linked to worse food affordability during these periods. However, the World Bank stressed that the findings do not prove that debt directly causes food to become unaffordable.
Heavy debt repayments can also leave governments with less money to support households when food prices rise suddenly.
The pressure is most severe in poorer countries, where millions of people were already unable to afford a healthy diet before recent global shocks.
In low-income economies, the share of people unable to afford a healthy diet changed little between 2017 and 2025, falling only slightly from 77.4 percent to 76.9 percent.
Conditions improved more in middle-income countries, but the numbers remain significant. The share fell from 58.5 percent to 45.2 percent in lower-middle-income economies and from 34.2 percent to 23.2 percent in upper-middle-income economies.
Dependence on imported food can make the situation even more difficult.
The World Bank noted that “food import vulnerability reflects both reliance on imported supply and the concentration of import sources, and these dimensions can coincide with high external debt burdens.”
In other words, countries can face higher risks when they depend heavily on food imports, particularly when much of that supply comes from a limited number of sources. A disruption in global markets can therefore quickly affect food availability and prices at home.
The World Bank identified dozens of economies that combine heavy reliance on food imports with high levels of foreign debt, leaving them heavily exposed when global markets are disrupted.
The pressure has also been compounded by rising energy and commodity prices linked to conflict in the Middle East. Inflation in developing countries that rely on commodity imports rose as higher energy costs pushed up the cost of transport, production, and food.
The World Bank calls on governments to strengthen their finances and manage debt more carefully to prepare for future global shocks.
The findings also highlight the link between public debt and household welfare, as rising food prices can leave more families unable to afford nutritious meals, especially in poorer countries with limited financial resources to respond.
