The World Trade Organization (WTO) is facing its most sustained disruption in decades as shifts in global economic power, rising government intervention, geopolitical tensions and digitalisation expose gaps in the rules governing international commerce.
According to the WTO’s World Trade Report 2026, the trading system needs to adapt to a more integrated and multipolar global economy, even as its core rules continue to underpin much of world trade.
The WTO now has 166 members, compared with fewer than two dozen economies when the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade was established in 1947. Over that period, the system has supported a sustained reduction in trade barriers and an almost 50-fold expansion in global trade, the report said.
Yet the rules have struggled to keep pace with changes in the global economy. The last comprehensive reform of the multilateral trading system, the Uruguay Round that created the WTO, was concluded in 1994, before the widespread adoption of the internet, the expansion of global value chains and major changes in the distribution of economic power.
“The multilateral trading system was built by governments that chose cooperation over confrontation,” WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said in the report, adding that the system had been repaired and renewed before.
Emerging Economies Gain Weight
One of the biggest structural changes identified by the report is the growing role of low- and middle-income economies in global commerce.
Their share of global trade nearly doubled to 45% in 2024 from 23% in 1995, reflecting the emergence of new trading powers and a broader distribution of economic activity. The shift creates opportunities for developing economies but also exposes a gap between some existing WTO commitments and current economic realities.
The changing distribution of trade power could create new opportunities for negotiations because countries that have gained market influence may have greater scope to seek reciprocal market-access commitments, the report said.
The shift is particularly visible in trade relationships between emerging economies. The number of product-destination relationships in which a developing or emerging economy was the leading supplier to a Northern economy rose sharply between 1995 and 2024, according to WTO calculations.
Subsidies, Digital Trade Adds Pressure
Government intervention has also become more prominent in trade policy, with industrial strategies driving greater use of subsidies and raising concerns over competition and the level playing field, according to the report.
At the same time, digital technologies and artificial intelligence are changing both what countries trade and how they trade. The report says AI is creating new economic opportunities while introducing challenges that existing multilateral rules have yet to fully address.
Environmental policy presents another area where trade rules are under pressure. The WTO said insufficient coordination between environmental and trade policies could limit their ability to support the transition toward a less carbon-intensive economy and create negative effects for trading partners.
These pressures are compounded by geopolitical tensions, which have increasingly turned economic interdependence into a matter of national security.
Rules Still Anchor Global Commerce
Despite the strains, the WTO said its framework remains important for providing predictability to businesses and governments.
About 72% of global merchandise trade continues to take place on most-favoured-nation tariff terms negotiated and committed to by WTO members, underscoring the continuing reach of the multilateral system.
The report argues that WTO rules do more than reduce tariffs. They provide mechanisms for regulatory coordination, transparency, dispute settlement and credible market-access commitments, helping businesses make investment and trade decisions in an environment of greater certainty.
The system has also demonstrated an ability to respond to crises. At the WTO’s 12th Ministerial Conference in 2022, members adopted measures addressing access to medical supplies and food-security pressures during the pandemic and global food-price shocks.
The report stops short of prescribing specific reforms. Instead, it identifies where the existing system is under strain and where adaptation may be needed as trade becomes more digital, fragmented and influenced by a wider range of economic powers.
For businesses, the central issue is whether the WTO can maintain predictable rules for cross-border commerce while adapting to a world in which emerging economies have greater market power, governments are playing a larger role in industry and technology is rapidly changing the nature of trade.
