The latest data on remittances provided by the Bank of Ghana (BoG) is suggesting that maybe, just maybe, the Governor of the Central Bank, Dr. Johnson Asiama, was too quick in his assessment of the impact of the cedi appreciation on remittance inflows.
It will be recalled that the Governor, in the third quarter of last year, in recounting the downsides of the cedi’s strong rally, revealed that the much-welcomed development has triggered about 50% drop in remittances.
Speaking at the launch of the Bank of Ghana Chair in Finance and Economics at the University of Ghana, Dr. Johnson Asiama noted that “the appreciation of the cedi so far, Ghanaians are interpreting this differently, and it is part of the problem. People who used to send remittances for projects have suddenly stopped, and so we have observed a near 50% decline in remittance inflows.”
This raised eyebrows for many Ghanaians. For dependents and recipients of remittances, it was a cut in their source of income and livelihoods. This means school fees, hospital bills, projects, and other uses of remittances are going to take a major hit. The argument was that a stronger cedi simply makes sending money home less attractive
For economists and analysts, the revelation was a big blow to the country’s balance of payment account. Such a massive reduction means less forex the country and exposes the country’s economy to external shocks.
But some months down the line, the Bank’s own latest data now raises an uncomfortable question: was the alarm sounded too early?
Figures from the latest Summary of Economic and Financial Data suggest a very different story in the period under review. 2025 saw a significant increase in remittances in all four quarters above figures recorded in the corresponding quarters in 2024.
According to the data, private transfers (inward), essentially remittances, rose steadily through 2024, climbing from about US$1.79 billion by March 2024 to US$3.63 billion in the second quarter. It further rose again in the third quarter to US$5.37 billion, the fourth quarter at US7.10 billion by December 2024.
Rather than collapsing in 2025 as feared, inflows accelerated further. In the first quarter of 2025, remittances stood higher than a year before at US$1.87 billion. It rose again to US$3.92 billion in June (2nd Quarter), again higher than the same period in 2024. By the third quarter of 2025, it had increased again to US$5.98 billion in September, and reached roughly US$7.79 billion by December 2025.
Far from a dip, the trend points to a sharp and sustained increase, even as the cedi strengthened and economic conditions stabilised.
This contrast between rhetoric and reality invites reflection. Did Ghanaians abroad really hold back because the cedi is stronger, or are remittance decisions driven more by family needs, long-term commitments, and confidence in the economy than by short-term exchange rate movements?
Again, was it the Governor’s reading of the early signals that failed to materialise? The numbers plainly suggest that while fears of a remittance slowdown made sense in theory, the lived behaviour of senders and the data tell a more resilient story.
This situation leaves policymakers with a timely reminder of how dynamic Ghana’s economy is and how, sometimes, theory may not reflect reality, given the various factors at play.
