Brazil has cemented its position as the world’s largest cotton exporter, intensifying competition for African producers at a time when rising global prices are creating fresh opportunities for the continent’s cotton industry, according to a new report by Afreximbank Research.
The South American producer is expected to post another year of record exports in the 2026/27 season, supported by large-scale commercial farming, efficient logistics and competitive production costs, allowing it to expand its influence over global cotton trade even as adverse weather curbs output in several competing producing countries.
The report says weather remains the biggest source of uncertainty for global cotton supplies. The United States, traditionally one of the world’s largest exporters, has experienced another difficult production season as persistent drought across much of its Cotton Belt reduced yield expectations and reinforced forecasts for lower export availability. Although rainfall improved conditions in some regions, crop ratings remain below historical averages and production is expected to decline from the previous season.
While India is projected to maintain relatively stable production following government investment to improve productivity, output is expected to soften across several other major exporting countries, leaving Brazil as the principal beneficiary of tightening global supplies.
For African exporters, Brazil’s ascent presents a growing competitive challenge despite stronger cotton prices.
According to Afreximbank, producers across the continent are under increasing pressure from Brazil’s ability to deliver large, reliable shipments through integrated logistics networks, strengthening its appeal to major textile manufacturers in Asia and eroding market share traditionally held by smaller exporting countries.
The bank warned that Africa’s long-term competitiveness will depend on improving farm yields, strengthening supply-chain efficiency and accelerating investment in domestic spinning, textile manufacturing and value-added processing rather than relying on exports of raw cotton. Without those structural changes, African producers risk losing ground to larger and more integrated exporters despite retaining advantages in cotton quality and traceability, the report said.
The warning comes as global cotton market fundamentals improve. Cotton futures have rallied about 35% from their February low after global production is forecast to fall below consumption in the 2026/27 season, reducing inventories to their lowest level since 2018/19 and supporting prices through the remainder of the year.
