The Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI) has cautioned that Ghana’s improved fiscal outlook, driven by strong gold exports, could conceal deep-rooted challenges in the petroleum sector and natural resource governance if critical reforms are delayed.
The institute said while higher gold prices and increased production had strengthened government revenues and external reserves, declining crude oil production, governance gaps and weak accountability in the extractive sector posed long-term risks to economic stability.
Mr Patrick Kwabena Stephenson, Country Manager of NRGI, made the observations in an interview with the media following the presentation of the 2026 Mid-Year Budget Review by Finance Minister Dr Cassiel Ato Forson.
He said the budget adopted a cautious outlook for the petroleum sector, projecting crude oil production of 37.95 million barrels in 2026, equivalent to about 103,959 barrels per day, compared with a projected 46.35 million barrels in 2025.
Based on a benchmark oil price of US$76.22 per barrel, petroleum revenue was initially projected at about US$985 million.
Mr Stephenson said the projections reflected the structural decline in Ghana’s oil industry as major producing fields mature, reserves diminish and asset productivity weakens.
He noted that concerns over the sector had already been reinforced by reports of a 15 percent decline in crude oil production and a 35.7 percent fall in petroleum receipts in 2025, largely due to ageing fields, delayed investment and policy uncertainty.
Although Brent crude prices remained above the budget benchmark during much of the first half of 2026, lifting projected petroleum revenue to nearly US$1.5 billion, he said the increase was driven mainly by favourable international prices rather than improvements in the sector’s underlying performance.
In contrast, Mr Stephenson said the mining sector had exceeded expectations through a combination of higher gold prices and increased production, particularly from the artisanal and small-scale mining subsector.
He, however, warned that the rapid expansion of artisanal mining had heightened concerns over illegal mining, gold smuggling and regulatory oversight, prompting GoldBod to tighten reporting requirements for licensed gold buyers.
According to him, stronger gold export earnings had boosted foreign exchange inflows and international reserves, improving Ghana’s macroeconomic position and strengthening fiscal resilience at a time of limited access to international financing.
He said gold was increasingly playing the stabilising role once expected of petroleum by supporting foreign reserves and reducing the economy’s exposure to external shocks.
Despite the gains, Mr Stephenson cautioned that increasing dependence on gold exports exposed Ghana to commodity price volatility and highlighted the absence of a comprehensive mineral revenue management framework to support long-term savings, stabilisation and strategic investment.
The institute called on the Government to fast-track reforms to improve the competitiveness of the petroleum sector and restore investor confidence by reviewing the extractive fiscal regime and publishing a clear implementation timetable.
It also urged the Government to account for US$434.55 million in Annual Budget Funding Amount resources reportedly held in a suspense account under the Big Push infrastructure programme and disclose the status of all projects financed with petroleum revenues in accordance with the Petroleum Revenue Management Act.
The NRGI further called for petroleum revenues retained by JOHL/Explorco outside the Petroleum Revenue Management Act’s accountability framework to be brought under the Act’s reporting and oversight mechanisms.
On plans to use the Heritage Fund for domestic energy and energy transition infrastructure, the institute urged the Ministry of Finance to publish a detailed investment policy outlining project selection criteria, risk management arrangements and expected economic returns.
It also appealed to the Government to make public the proposed National Petroleum Revitalisation Strategy to enable scrutiny of measures aimed at reversing declining production, attracting investment and strengthening governance in the upstream petroleum industry.
The institute further recommended greater transparency on plans to finance a second gas processing train, reforms in the electricity sector, quarterly public reporting on extractive revenues allocated to the Big Push programme, and the enactment of a Mineral Revenue Management Act to improve the management of mineral revenues.
Mr Stephenson said Ghana’s improved fiscal performance in 2026 presented an opportunity to undertake structural reforms, stressing that sustainable economic growth would depend on stronger governance, greater transparency and effective management of the country’s natural resource wealth.
