Africa’s oil demand is expected to rise through 2027, with consumption forecast to reach 5.21 million barrels a day next year, according to the OPEC’s August 2026 Monthly Oil Market Report.
OPEC forecasts African oil demand to increase by about 160,000 barrels a day in 2027, or roughly 3.2% from an estimated 5.05 million barrels a day in 2026. That follows growth of about 140,000 barrels a day in 2026 from 4.92 million barrels a day in 2025.
The increase comes as global oil demand is also expected to accelerate. OPEC projects worldwide consumption to rise by 2.2 million barrels a day in 2027, compared with 580,000 barrels a day in 2026, with non-OECD economies accounting for most of the growth.
For Africa, the forecast points to continued expansion in petroleum consumption despite the broader global shift toward alternative energy sources.
Demand Reaches 5.4 Million Barrels a Day in Fourth Quarter
OPEC’s quarterly forecasts show African oil demand rising to 5.23 million barrels a day in the first quarter of 2027, before easing to 4.89 million barrels a day in the second quarter and then increasing to 5.18 million barrels a day in the third quarter.
Consumption is forecast to reach 5.55 million barrels a day in the fourth quarter of 2027, the highest quarterly level in the report’s 2027 forecast.
The quarterly pattern indicates that the annual increase will not be uniform, with demand expected to fluctuate through the year.
Africa’s Demand Growth Comes as Emerging Markets Drive Global Consumption
Africa’s projected increase forms part of a broader shift in global oil consumption toward non-OECD economies.
OPEC expects non-OECD oil demand to increase by about 1.82 million barrels a day in 2027, compared with growth of about 340,000 barrels a day in OECD countries.
Africa’s projected 160,000-barrel-a-day increase is therefore smaller than the gains expected in India, other Asian economies and China, but it reinforces the continent’s position as a source of incremental oil demand.
India is forecast to add about 390,000 barrels a day in demand in 2027, while other Asian countries are expected to add 370,000 barrels a day and China 330,000 barrels a day.
Higher Demand Creates Refining Opportunity
The increase in African consumption has implications for the continent’s petroleum-products market, particularly as countries seek to reduce dependence on imported refined fuels.
However, OPEC’s report does not directly attribute Africa’s projected demand increase to refining capacity, fuel-import policies or any particular African country. The report’s figures establish the expected growth in consumption but do not provide a continent-wide explanation for the increase beyond the underlying regional demand outlook.
This, however, is an opportunity for African countries to strengthen their refining capabilities to capture economic value through the high demands.
Global Supply Also Expected to Grow
Africa’s rising demand will occur alongside an increase in global oil supply. OPEC forecasts liquids production from countries outside the Declaration of Cooperation to rise by about 600,000 barrels a day in 2026 and another 600,000 barrels a day in 2027, reaching an average of 55.5 million barrels a day next year. Growth in 2027 is expected to be led by Qatar, Canada, Brazil and Argentina.
That additional supply could provide more barrels to meet rising consumption, although the report does not provide a specific forecast for how much of the additional supply would flow to African markets.
The forecast puts Africa on a path of steadily increasing oil consumption through 2027, even as the global market undergoes changes in production, refining and energy demand. For African economies, the increase notes the importance of how additional petroleum demand is supplied, whether through domestic refining, regional trade or imports.
