The coffee industry in Africa is entering a more uncertain phase as a global supply recovery led by Brazil threatens to ease prices, putting pressure on producers to use recent export windfalls to strengthen productivity, processing capacity and climate resilience.
Global coffee production is expected to reach 189.7 million bags in the 2026/27 season, up 6.1% from a year earlier, according to an Afreximbank Research report. The increase is being driven largely by a 12% rise in Arabica output, with Brazil’s production forecast to climb more than 14%.
The shift follows four consecutive seasons of global supply deficits and could move the market toward surplus, although Afreximbank said near-term physical tightness, low inventories and weather risks mean prices may not decline immediately or uniformly.
For African producers, the changing market presents a narrow opportunity to convert unusually high commodity revenues into investments that can protect earnings when global supply normalizes.
Africa’s coffee exports reached a record 19.7 million bags in 2024/25, an increase of about 19% year-on-year and equivalent to 11.6% of global coffee exports, according to the report. Ethiopia and Uganda accounted for almost 80% of the continent’s outbound coffee trade.
Ethiopia generated about $3 billion from coffee exports in the 2025/26 fiscal year, almost 50% more than a year earlier, while Uganda’s rolling 12-month coffee exports reached $2.4 billion, up 36%, according to data cited by Afreximbank.
The earnings surge has been driven by historically high global prices and inventory drawdowns, but Afreximbank cautions that the favorable cycle may not last.
The global market is now transitioning from scarcity toward a better-supplied environment. Brazil’s expanding Arabica crop is expected to be the main force behind the shift, while improving rainfall and the maturation of higher-yielding trees are supporting production.
USDA forecasts cited by Afreximbank show African coffee production also expanding, with Ethiopia’s 2026/27 harvest projected at 12.1 million bags and Uganda’s at about 7.2 million bags. Uganda’s predominantly Robusta-based production could benefit from relatively tighter global Robusta supply.
But the global market is becoming increasingly divided between Arabica and Robusta.
Global Robusta production is projected to decline about 0.7% year-on-year, largely because of a weaker Indonesian harvest. Indonesia’s output is expected to fall by about 1 million bags to 11.4 million bags after unseasonal rainfall disrupted flowering and cherry formation.
That contrasts with Brazil’s record Conilon harvest and an expected rebound in Vietnamese production, leaving different supply conditions for the two main varieties.
The price gap is already changing the economics of the industry. The spread between New York Arabica and London Robusta futures reached 145.56 US cents a pound in August, encouraging roasters to substitute cheaper Robusta for more expensive Arabica where possible.
That substitution could become an important structural change for African producers, particularly as buyers adjust blends and sourcing strategies in response to relative prices.
Coffee has also become one of the most volatile agricultural commodities in 2026. Thirty-day realized volatility reached between 45% and 52% in July, compared with 10% to 14% for the broader Bloomberg Commodity Index, according to data cited by Afreximbank.
Robusta has experienced particularly high volatility because of supply shortages in Vietnam, shipping disruptions and changing Brazilian production. Nearby London Robusta futures were around $3,488 a ton, down from $3,877 on Aug. 25, while New York Arabica was around 285.70 US cents a pound, up from 265.70 cents in July.
The market’s next move will depend heavily on inventories and weather rather than production forecasts alone. A large Brazilian crop could gradually rebuild stocks and reduce the scarcity premium embedded in Arabica prices, but a significant weather disruption during Brazil’s September-October flowering period could quickly revive concerns about the following crop.
Afreximbank identifies the strengthening El Niño cycle as a key risk because damage during the flowering window could undermine Brazil’s 2027/28 harvest before global inventories have rebuilt sufficiently.
For Africa, the implications extend beyond farmgate prices.
The continent faces rising compliance costs as major importing markets tighten requirements around traceability, deforestation and forced labor. The European Union’s Deforestation Regulation and US forced-labour due-diligence requirements are expected to increase the financial and data requirements facing exporters.
That makes investment in processing and value addition increasingly important. Afreximbank said Africa needs a stronger domestic network of roasters, packers and aggregators so that more value is captured locally instead of allowing price risks to flow directly to farmers.
The bank also identified financing for tree rehabilitation and extension support for smallholders as priorities, alongside infrastructure to reduce post-harvest losses and strengthen regional value chains.
Afreximbank said it is supporting the sector through initiatives including its Export Agriculture for Food Security program, which provides credit facilities and risk-mitigation instruments for coffee aggregators, roasters and packers.
The broader challenge for African coffee exporters is therefore shifting. During the shortage cycle, high prices generated exceptional export revenues. As Brazil’s production recovers, competitiveness will increasingly depend on productivity, supply reliability, processing capacity, compliance and the ability to capture more value within Africa.
For producers, the current earnings cycle offers a chance to invest before the market’s return to surplus potentially removes some of the pricing support that has boosted export revenues over the past two seasons.
