The Bank of Ghana (BoG) on Monday signaled confidence in Ghana’s economic recovery, pointing to steady growth, easing inflation, and a cautious approach to interest rates as its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met for the 127th time.
Governor Johnson Pandit Asiama said the economy had “turned a decisive corner” over the past year, with headline inflation falling to 8 percent and core inflation holding between 5 and 7 percent, keeping expectations anchored. The cedi has remained broadly stable, supported by reforms in the foreign exchange (FX) market, strong trade inflows, and rising reserves.
Gross international reserves climbed to US$11.41 billion, equivalent to 4.8 months of import cover, and are projected to reach five months by year-end. Meanwhile, economic growth is broadening: GDP expanded 6.3 percent in the first half of 2025, while non-oil sectors surged 7.8 percent. High-frequency indicators, including the Composite Index of Economic Activity, rose about 9 percent, and business and consumer sentiment remains positive.
“This performance shows the economy is gradually shifting from recovery to expansion,” Asiama said. He credited disciplined fiscal management, a cautious monetary stance, and structural reforms, including improvements in FX operations and rebuilding external buffers, for the turnaround. The upcoming 2026 Budget is expected to reinforce this momentum, focusing on growth and job creation.
Looking ahead, BoG projections indicate a steady expansion through 2026, supported by services, industry, and agriculture. A strong harvest, improved food supply, greater FX liquidity, and an easing credit environment are expected to sustain growth. Inflation is likely to settle between 4–6 percent by year-end, potentially marking the start of a multi-year period of price stability.
Despite the optimism, the governor warned that risks remain, including global commodity price swings, geopolitical tensions, and tighter external financial conditions. Domestically, taxes, utility costs, and high credit prices continue to challenge businesses.
For the MPC, the governor highlighted three key priorities: the pace of disinflation and real interest rates, FX market reforms and reserve diversification, and financial sector stability with effective credit transmission. While most banks remain sound, some institutions still face asset quality and recapitalization pressures.
“The task before us is to protect stability while supporting real sector recovery,” Asiamah said. “Our decisions must reinforce confidence, signal predictability, and keep Ghana on a path toward higher, job-rich growth.”
