Africa may be thousands of miles away from the Strait of Hormuz, but it is emerging that if disruptions persist for another 30 days, the continent could feel the shock in ways that are immediate, widespread, and deeply disruptive.
According to the President of the Africa Supply Chain Confederation (ASCON), Ronald Mlalazi, the issue is no longer geopolitical distance; it is supply chain proximity.
He adds that in Africa’s case, the vulnerabilities are already exposed. In his analysis of the situation, Mlalazi indicates that the first and fastest effect will come through the deepening of the already deteriorating fuel crisis.
In his article titled “When Hormuz closes, Africa Pays First,” he explains that diesel, the backbone of logistics across African economies, reacts almost instantly to global price shocks. A prolonged disruption in the Strait will likely push fuel prices higher, triggering a rapid increase in transport costs, freight charges, and distribution expenses. From food suppliers to retailers, margins will tighten. For consumers, it will show up as higher prices at the pump and on store shelves.
But the crisis will not stop at fuel. He adds that shipping delays are already building. Major global routes are being rerouted around longer paths, stretching delivery timelines by weeks. This translates into longer lead times, tied-up working capital, and rising risks of stockouts. Import-dependent sectors, particularly manufacturing and retail, will find themselves operating in uncertainty, with delayed inputs and disrupted production cycles.
Then comes what Mlalazi describes as the “sleeper crisis”: fertiliser. Often overlooked in the early stages of disruption, fertiliser availability could have had delayed but devastating consequences. Missed planting windows today could mean lower crop yields months from now, feeding directly into food inflation, heightened social pressure, and even currency instability in vulnerable economies.
In a region already sensitive to food price shocks, the ripple effects could be severe. And as the pressure builds, the system begins to fracture in less obvious ways.
Secondary shortages will start to emerge, first subtly, then suddenly. Packaging materials like plastics may tighten, chemicals used in manufacturing could become scarce, and even pharmaceutical supply chains may feel the strain. The disruption will not occur in a single dramatic break; it will cascade across sectors, compounding existing pressures.
At the heart of the issue is a structural reality. Most African economies are net importers of fuel and fertiliser and remain heavily dependent on global shipping routes. This makes the continent a price taker in times of crisis, with limited ability to control outcomes and little room for delay in response.
For businesses, the next 30 days will be decisive. Decisions around securing supply, building buffer stock, rerouting shipments, and renegotiating contracts will separate those that absorb the shock from those that are overwhelmed by it.
Waiting for prices to stabilize may prove costly in a market where availability, not affordability, becomes the defining constraint.
The implications for the governments are equally stark. There is rising inflationary pressure, potential food insecurity, and a growing strain on already fragile economic systems.
For him, what is unfolding is not a distant geopolitical episode. It is a supply chain event with immediate commercial and social consequences.
If the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz persists, Africa will not just face higher prices; it will confront a convergence of slower trade, tighter margins, and rising vulnerability.
