Artificial Intelligence (AI) could increase global trade by 40% by 2040 as digital technologies expand the range of services that can be delivered across borders and lower the cost of creating, processing and transmitting information, according to the World Trade Organization (WTO).
WTO simulations cited in its 2026 World Trade Report project the largest gains to come from digitally deliverable services, with the impact depending on the pace of technology adoption and the policy frameworks supporting it.
Under the report’s most favourable scenario, where technology adoption and policy frameworks converge, AI could add 13.2% to global GDP over the next 15 years, the WTO said, citing its 2025 research.
The report says AI and digitalisation can raise productivity, stimulate innovation and reduce trade barriers by allowing more services and business activities to be conducted digitally across borders.
The expansion is already visible in global services trade. Services exports accounted for about 28% of global trade in 2025, while digitally delivered services reached $5.26 trillion, increasing 10% during the year. Digitally delivered services accounted for 15.2% of total world exports of goods and services.
The WTO says AI is reshaping production processes across sectors while lowering information-related costs, creating opportunities for economies and businesses able to participate in digitally enabled trade.
But the gains are not expected to be evenly distributed.
The report warns that economies with limited digital infrastructure, weak technological capabilities or constrained access to energy and digital networks could face greater difficulties integrating into emerging digitally enabled trade. It also cites evidence that unilateral policy support in high-income and upper-middle-income economies is widening the digital divide.
AI could also create uneven adjustment costs within and across economies, while raising concerns around privacy, security and competition, the WTO said.
Governments are responding with a growing range of digital and AI-related policies, including industrial subsidies, export restrictions, data-governance measures, privacy rules and cybersecurity requirements. The report says such policy interventions have increased steadily across regions.
Differences in national regulations could become a constraint on the projected gains. Divergent rules can increase trade costs, fragment digital markets and require companies operating across borders to comply with different or incompatible requirements, according to the WTO.
The report says international regulatory cooperation will become increasingly important as the digital economy becomes more integrated, because policies on privacy, cybersecurity and national security can create effects beyond the countries where they are introduced.
For businesses, the potential expansion of AI-enabled trade therefore depends not only on access to the technology but also on the infrastructure, energy, skills and regulatory systems needed to use it across borders.
The WTO’s projection places AI among the technologies likely to reshape the structure of global trade, with digitally deliverable services positioned to capture the largest gains if technology adoption and policy frameworks develop together.
