Although Ghana’s recent macroeconomic turnaround has won praise at home and abroad, the World Bank is warning that this is precisely when the country faces its greatest danger of complacency.
Ghana’s economy, in recent months, has been enjoying stabilizing inflation, quarterly economic growth, expanding reserves, shrinking public debt stock, and restoring investor confidence.
Amid these gains, in its 2025 Policy Notes on Ghana, the Bank cautions that the temptation to return to old habits, such as rushing back to the Eurobond market or banking on future oil revenues from the Pecan fields in 2028, could undo years of hard-won progress.
According to the report, slipping back into “business-as-usual” would come with severe consequences. In the short term, it would keep Ghana’s risk premium painfully high, meaning borrowing costs remain unsustainable.
“Conversely, the real risk is complacency and maintaining a business-as-usual mindset. Recent macroeconomic achievements might tempt the government to reenter the Eurobond market while awaiting full production from the Pecan oil fields in 2028,” the report cited by The High Street Journal indicated.
It added, “Such a course of action would lead to severe adverse consequences. In the short to medium term, it would keep country risk premium high, resulting in unsustainable borrowing costs.”
In the medium term, there is the danger of social discontent. With half a million young people entering the labor market each year, many could find themselves trapped in low-skilled, informal, and low-productivity jobs. This mismatch between expectations and reality, the Bank warns, could fuel frustration and instability.
The World Bank also notes that in the long term, the picture is even bleaker. Without reforming its growth model to address structural weaknesses, Ghana risks a “slow and inevitable decline.” The irony is that Ghana’s recent achievements could lure the government into a false sense of security.
The impact of such complacency, the World Bank says, is dire. If the complacency stalls the needed reforms, the youth bulge may not become the promised “demographic dividend” but a ticking time bomb of joblessness and discontent.
And if the government keeps borrowing recklessly, taxpayers will shoulder the burden of mounting debt for decades.
“In the medium term, social discontent might increase, as young people entering the labor market face the grim prospect of being confined to informal, low-productivity, and low-skilled jobs. In the long term, failure to reform Ghana’s growth model to tackle long-standing issues, adapt to the global landscape, and meet citizens’ aspirations would lead to a slow and inevitable decline,” the World Bank added.
The World Bank’s concern is that Ghana can celebrate the economic progress it has chalked, but it should not fall asleep on success.
