The Trump administration’s imposition of a 17% tariff on fresh tomato imports from Mexico has thrown the country’s largest produce export sector into uncertainty, threatening billions in trade and hundreds of thousands of jobs.
The new duty, effective July 14, is part of Washington’s escalating protectionist measures and comes as Mexico scrambles to avert a broader 30% general tariff set to take effect on August 1. Mexico supplies the U.S. with more fresh tomatoes than any other country, accounting for over $3 billion in export earnings last year and sustaining around 500,000 jobs.
Producers like Veggie Prime, a major exporter from Querétaro, are already feeling the pinch. “None of us can afford it,” said export director Moisés Atri, noting that in the first week of the tariff, his company absorbed the entire cost. Their buyer, Canadian distributor Mastronardi Produce, has since agreed to raise prices by 10%, but Atri hopes more of the burden will eventually be passed to U.S. retailers like Costco and Walmart.
Analysts warn the tariff could slash Mexico’s tomato exports by 5%–10%, risking as many as 200,000 jobs. The U.S., which relies heavily on Mexican fresh tomatoes, would face difficulties replacing the supply, as domestic producers in California and Florida mainly grow for processing.
The Mexican government is exploring alternative markets such as Japan, though logistical challenges like air freight costs make diversification difficult. Meanwhile, some producers are experimenting with other crops, including peppers, in search of stability.
President Claudia Sheinbaum has pledged to consult growers on support measures, especially for smallholders already hit by a 10% fall in domestic tomato prices amid fears of oversupply.
With a scheduled review of the tariff in two months, producers remain in limbo, caught between contractual obligations and rising costs, hoping for relief before U.S. tomato output declines in the fall.
