Brent crude futures nudged closer to the $70-a-barrel mark on Thursday, continuing the climb from earlier in the week and hovering near a five-month high. Traders are keeping a close eye on the geopolitical stage, with US-Iran tensions dominating market chatter.
Despite signals from President Donald Trump that he hopes to reach an agreement with Tehran following talks with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, uncertainty lingers. Markets remain jittery over the possibility of military conflict in the region, a scenario that could disrupt global oil supply.
Yet, not all signals point upward. US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data revealed a significant build in domestic crude inventories last week, up by 8.5 million barrels, the highest level since late June. The surge signals traders that, despite geopolitical risks, supply in the world’s largest oil-consuming nation remains ample.
OPEC, meanwhile, left its demand growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027 unchanged at 1.38 million barrels per day (bpd) and 1.34 million bpd, respectively, while also maintaining its outlook for non-OPEC supply. The International Energy Agency (IEA) is due to release its monthly report later Thursday, which could reinforce concerns over a potential global supply surplus.
For now, Brent’s delicate balance reflects a tug-of-war: geopolitical uncertainty pushes prices up, while ample inventories and steady production keep a lid on gains. Traders and investors will be watching closely for the next cue, knowing that just a whisper of tension, or relief, could swing the market.
