It could be said that for the past years, when the Ghana cedi and depreciation were the best of friends, every Ghanaian, from the Makola trader to the high-rise corporate executive, was forced to become a currency analyst by force.
The dollar rate, both the formal and black market rates, was watched like a hawk, knowing that a slip in the Cedi meant our rent, fuel, and school fees were about to skyrocket.
For the low-income and the vulnerable, the impact on the prices of goods and services was very telling on their standard of living.
But as policy think tank, C-NERGY’s latest thought leadership series, dubbed “A Year After the Cedi Rally: Reflection and the Path to Sustained Stabilisation,” reflects on the Cedi’s dramatic 30% rally in 2025, a critical question emerges: Is the “Greenback Habit” finally broken?.
The greenback habit, according to C-NERGY, can be described as the behavioural or psychological habit of being obsessed with the rate of the dollar during periods of depreciation.
The psychological effect meant that households, businesses, and corporates planned their financial and economic life around the dollar.
The “Defensive” Trap: Why We Hoarded
According to the latest report from C-NERGY, the Cedi’s struggles between 2022 and 2024 weren’t just about trade deficits or debt; they were deeply behavioral.
When the currency tumbled from GHS 6.00 to over GHS 15.00 in three years, Ghanaians stopped trusting the local currency as a store of value. This triggered what experts call the “defensive dollarization”.
C-NERY explains that households began packing dollars under mattresses to protect their savings, and treasury managers started building “buffers” into contracts, pricing goods higher today because they expected the Cedi to be weaker tomorrow.
This collective panic created a self-fulfilling prophecy that, because everyone expected the Cedi to fall, their rush to buy dollars actually forced it to fall harder.
By late 2023, the Cedi had entered a regime where “weakening was no longer a surprise,” fueled by these speculative sentiments.
The 2025 Turnaround: More Than Just Luck
But the think tank confirms that there has been a turnaround in the economy. The cedi’s rally in 2025 was a shock to the system, supported by record gold and cocoa prices and a massive rebuilding of reserves to over $10 billion.
However, the report makes it clear that while the Bank of Ghana has implemented “structured forex market measures”, like tighter monitoring and better export receipt capture, the battle is far from over.
The biggest obstacle to long-term stability isn’t a lack of gold; it’s the lingering trauma of the 2022–2024 crash. Even with the currency strengthening, many businesses are hesitant to lower prices, and many individuals are still holding onto their dollar “safety nets.”
The Roadmap for Policymakers: Winning Back the “Ghanaian Mind”
For this stability to endure, C-NERGY advocates that policymakers must do more than just manage vaults; they must manage expectations. The think tank outlines a clear path for the government and the Bank of Ghana to work on the psyche of Ghanaians to break the cycle of defensive hoarding.
C-NERGY calls for consistent policy signaling to shift behavioral expectations. It maintains that the market needs to trust that the currency will remain stable.
This requires consistent policy signaling and avoiding the kind of abrupt, “knee-jerk” measures that destroyed confidence in the past.
It also highly recommends the creation of alternatives to hoarding. Long-term stability requires the development of hedging instruments and forward forex markets. The think tank believes that if businesses can manage their currency exposure through formal financial tools rather than reactively buying spot dollars, the pressure on the Cedi will ease significantly.
It further adds that transparency is critical. The Bank of Ghana must continue to narrow the gap between its policy signals and market reality. It believes that when the public sees that reserves are actually robust, the urge to speculate reduces.
The Bottom Line
C-NERGY says the 2025 rally proved that reversals are possible; however, it warns that temporary compression of import demand is not a permanent solution.
If Ghanaians continue to act out of fear and hence hoard dollars every time there is a hint of global tension, such as the rising conflict in the Middle East, the Cedi will remain vulnerable.
To cross the gap from “Cedi Rally” to “Cedi Stability”, the nation must move from a culture of defensive speculation to one of economic trust. Only when the dollar is moved from the mattress back into the banking system will the Cedi truly be safe.
