The African Union (AU) has called on governments across the continent to accelerate disaster preparedness measures after climate forecasts pointed to a 90% probability of a “Super El Niño” developing later this year, warning that the weather phenomenon could trigger droughts, floods and economic disruptions across multiple regions.
Speaking at a ministerial meeting on Africa’s preparedness and response to the anticipated 2026 El Niño, African Union Commissioner for Agriculture, Rural Development, Blue Economy and Sustainable Environment Moses Vilakati said the continent faces an imminent climate threat that could become the strongest El Niño event since 1950.
“Scientific projections indicate a 90% probability of a Super El Niño event developing later this year, with peak intensity expected between November 2026 and February 2027,” Vilakati said. “This is not a distant possibility. It is an imminent risk that demands immediate preparation at national, regional and continental levels.”
The commissioner warned that large parts of Africa could experience severe droughts, destructive floods, prolonged heatwaves, food shortages, disease outbreaks and mounting humanitarian pressures, with potentially significant consequences for economic growth, government finances and regional stability.
The warning comes as African countries are still grappling with the fallout from the 2023-2024 El Niño season, which devastated agricultural production and strained public resources across southern and eastern Africa.
According to Vilakati, six southern African countries, Botswana, Lesotho, Malawi, Namibia, Zambia and Zimbabwe, declared national disasters after drought linked to the previous El Niño episode. The Southern African Development Community subsequently launched a humanitarian appeal worth $5.5 billion to support more than 71 million people, equivalent to nearly 18% of the bloc’s population.
Agricultural output fell sharply, hydropower generation was disrupted and millions of people required emergency assistance, while eastern Africa experienced floods that displaced communities and damaged critical infrastructure, he said.
“The difference between a manageable crisis and a humanitarian disaster will be determined by what we do before the impacts arrive,” Vilakati told ministers and delegates.
The African Union urged governments to translate climate forecasts into concrete policy actions, including strengthening national emergency plans, investing in climate-resilient agriculture, protecting water resources and expanding early warning systems to vulnerable communities.
Vilakati said Africa has made progress in improving climate observation networks, seasonal forecasting and early warning mechanisms through institutions such as the African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development and regional climate centers. However, he cautioned that scientific forecasts alone would not prevent disaster unless governments converted warnings into investments and coordinated action.
“History has repeatedly demonstrated that natural hazards become humanitarian disasters when preparedness is inadequate,” he said. “Yet history has also shown that timely action saves lives, protects economies and safeguards development gains.”
The African Union Commission said it would work with member states, regional economic communities, development partners and the private sector to mobilize resources and coordinate preparedness efforts ahead of the expected weather event.
“We still have a window of opportunity to act,” Vilakati said. “Preparedness requires political leadership, investments, institutions that coordinate effectively, and partnerships built on trust.”
