Russia’s growing economic challenges were laid bare at the 2025 St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, where unease among the country’s leadership was palpable. Once celebrated as a showcase for foreign investment and international cooperation, the event this year was defined more by anxiety than ambition, as recession fears and international isolation took center stage.
President Vladimir Putin, while maintaining a confident posture, veered into military rhetoric rather than economic reassurance. In a statement that captured headlines, he declared, “Where the foot of a Russian soldier steps, that’s ours.” The remark, while reinforcing Russia’s geopolitical posture, seemed jarring at an event meant to attract global investors.
The country’s Economic Development Minister, Maxim Reshetnikov, offered a stark warning: Russia is “on the brink of recession.” Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina added that the country’s recent growth, largely driven by military expenditure and the mobilisation of underused economic resources, had now plateaued. With those resources depleted, the outlook has dimmed considerably.
The forum exposed the deep toll exacted by the prolonged war in Ukraine and the massive sanctions that followed. High inflation, rising interest rates, and economic stagnation are now openly acknowledged by government officials. Western sanctions have driven thousands of foreign firms out of Russia, eroding investor confidence and limiting access to international capital.
Although some in Russia remain hopeful that diplomatic shifts, especially under a potential new U.S. administration, could ease sanctions and rekindle business ties, foreign investors remain wary. Robert Agee, President of the American Chamber of Commerce in Russia, noted that any serious return of U.S. businesses would hinge on an end to the Ukraine conflict.
Russia’s internal economic strain could have significant implications for African economies, particularly those that rely on Russian trade, investment, and energy. With Russia facing a potential downturn, its capacity to sustain economic partnerships abroad, especially in Africa, may be weakened. African nations that import Russian grain, fertilizer, and fuel could experience supply chain disruptions and price instability. Moreover, large-scale investments and development initiatives championed by Moscow in sectors like mining and infrastructure may be scaled back.
For many African countries that have forged closer ties with Russia in recent years, the country’s economic uncertainty is cause for concern. A weakening Russian economy may also shift geopolitical alignments, potentially opening the door for other global powers to expand their influence on the continent.
While the Kremlin insists that reports of economic decline are exaggerated, the open discussions of recession at this year’s forum suggest otherwise. As Russia continues to prioritise military goals over macroeconomic stability, its ability to function as a reliable economic partner—especially in developing regions like Africa, remains in question.
