Russian President Vladimir Putin has touched down in Delhi for a high-stakes two-day visit with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, as energy, defence, and diplomacy collide.
Months of U.S. pressure over Indian purchases of Russian oil, rising trade ambitions, and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine crisis set the stage for a summit that is as much about geopolitics as friendship. For Modi, it’s a balancing act securing vital supplies and strategic partnerships while keeping India’s global autonomy intact.
A Strategic Friendship in Numbers
India’s nearly 1.5 billion people and its booming economy growing at over 8% make it an irresistible market for Russian goods and energy. Crude oil has become the backbone of this renewed partnership: before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, only 2.5% of India’s oil came from Moscow. By 2025, discounted Russian oil accounted for 35% of India’s imports, a sharp jump that benefited New Delhi but irked Washington.
The Trump administration responded with a 25% tariff on Indian goods, citing support for Russian oil as fueling Moscow’s war efforts. Now, Putin is expected to push India to maintain purchases, even as Modi carefully navigates the U.S.-India trade deadlock.
Beyond oil, weapons sales remain a cornerstone of Russia-India ties. India is reportedly eyeing advanced Russian fighter jets and air defence systems, while Russia, struggling with labour shortages, sees India as a source of skilled workers. Putin’s visit also sends a symbolic message: despite Western attempts to isolate Moscow over Ukraine, Russia maintains powerful allies in Asia and the Global South.
Modi’s Tightrope: Strategic Autonomy in Action
For Prime Minister Modi, Putin’s visit is a test of India’s strategic autonomy. India has maintained close ties with Moscow while nurturing relationships with the West, a balancing act complicated by U.S. sanctions and European criticism over Ukraine.
“The challenge is strategic balance—protecting autonomy while navigating pressure from Washington and dependence on Moscow,” says the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), a Delhi think tank.
Modi aims to show Indians and the world that he can maintain his alliance with Putin without alienating the West. At the same time, he must strengthen trade with Russia in areas beyond oil, including consumer goods and technology, to reduce the imbalance skewed heavily in Russia’s favour.
Trade, Defence, and Economic Opportunity
Bilateral trade has surged to $68.7 billion in March 2025 from just $8.1 billion in 2020, largely due to discounted oil imports. However, India wants to diversify trade to correct this imbalance. Defence remains critical: despite efforts to reduce dependence on Russian platforms, India still relies on Russian jets and air defence systems, with the S-400 system proving indispensable during limited clashes with Pakistan earlier this year.
Reports indicate India is seeking upgraded S-500 systems and Su-57 fighter jets, while also pushing for access for Indian goods in Russia, especially in consumer categories like electronics, garments, meat, and seafood. Modi’s goal is clear: secure oil and defence support, expand trade opportunities, and leave room to deepen partnerships with the West.
Geopolitics Meets Economics
Putin’s visit is not a nostalgic Cold War gesture. It is a negotiation over supply chains, risk, and economic leverage. Even modest outcomes could lock in oil and defence deals; ambitious outcomes could reshape regional economics. For both leaders, it is a delicate dance of diplomacy, friendship, and strategic necessity.
