The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) has warned that political unrest during Ghana’s upcoming election could threaten the country’s economic recovery.
Instability, they predict, may deter investors and disrupt ongoing fiscal and structural reforms aimed at stabilizing the economy.
According to EIU, Ghana’s economy faces challenges due to its reliance on a few exports—hydrocarbons, gold, and cocoa—which makes it vulnerable to price changes in global markets. Poor infrastructure, especially outside cities, adds to these risks.
The Unit predicts that the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) will win the December elections, replacing the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP).
However, a quick fix to the country’s economic struggles is unlikely. Public dissatisfaction with poor living conditions and working environments in the public sector is expected to cause some unrest.
In the short term, the government’s focus will be on stabilizing the economy and managing debt with help from a $3 billion IMF program that runs until 2026. The successful restructuring of Ghana’s external debts, including Eurobonds, is expected to ease the burden of repayments in the near future.
The EIU expects Ghana’s economy to grow between 2025 and 2029, supported by a recovery in household spending and investment as inflation drops and borrowing becomes easier. Growth will also come from higher gold and oil production and stronger export earnings.
However, while the current account is expected to record a surplus in 2025, this will shift to a deficit in 2026 as debt repayments resume and profits are sent abroad by mining and oil companies.
As one of the few African countries restructuring its debts under the G20 framework, Ghana’s economic future depends on careful management.
But the upcoming elections in Ghana carry significant risks for the country’s stability as political unrest during the elections could slow progress. While the EIU predicts a smooth transition to the NDC, any allegations of election fraud or an unexpected NPP victory could lead to widespread unrest.
This instability could disrupt governance, delay reforms, and make it harder for Ghana to access critical international financial support.
Such outcomes would put the country’s fragile economic recovery at risk, as investor confidence and financial backing are essential for progress.
