The National Bank of Poland (NBP) is widely expected to resume interest rate cuts this Wednesday, as inflation continues to ease within its target range.
A Reuters poll of 30 analysts showed that 26 anticipate a 25 basis point cut, bringing the benchmark rate down to 4.75%. Four, however, believe the rate will remain unchanged at 5%.
The bank last surprised markets with a 25 basis point cut in July, following a larger 50 basis point reduction in May. Prior to that, rates had been held steady at 5.75% since autumn 2023.
Although NBP Governor Adam Glapiński insisted the July move was not the start of an easing cycle, he left the door open for further cuts. Fresh data showing August consumer prices rising 2.8% year-on-year, slightly lower than July’s 3.1% adds to expectations. Both figures fall within the bank’s 2.5% target, plus or minus one percentage point.
“Recent NBP communication and softer inflation support our call for a 25bps cut,” analysts at Deutsche Bank said. But they cautioned that fiscal risks, highlighted in Poland’s 2026 draft budget, and uncertainty over electricity prices could slow further easing.
Poland lifted its 2025 deficit forecast on Friday, with high defence, welfare and debt servicing costs weighing on efforts to curb the shortfall.
EY analyst Maciej Stefański, who expects rates to remain steady, described the decision as a “near toss-up.” He argued that looming uncertainty over regulated energy prices, Poland’s electricity price cap for households expires in October, could prompt caution.
In August, President Karol Nawrocki vetoed a bill that would have extended the freeze, accusing the government of “blackmail” after it bundled the measure with wind farm reforms.
Still, Stefański believes policymakers are overplaying the energy risk. “Even if rates hold in September, gradual cuts averaging 25 basis points every two months remain likely,” he said.
