OPEC and its partners — a group known as OPEC+ — have agreed to increase oil production starting September 2025. This decision could affect oil prices around the world, including here in Ghana.
According to reports from Bloomberg, the group plans to add 548,000 barrels of oil per day to global supply. This move is part of a gradual reversal of earlier decisions made in 2023, when OPEC+ had reduced oil production by over 2.2 million barrels per day to keep prices high. The new increase also includes extra production from the United Arab Emirates, which is being added bit by bit.
The decision will be confirmed during a virtual OPEC+ meeting today. It shows a big change in the group’s approach — from limiting supply to keep prices up, to now increasing supply to win back market share.
This latest move follows several months of steady production increases. Earlier this year, OPEC+ unexpectedly increased supply faster than expected, which caused oil prices to drop to their lowest in four years. That move came during a time of global tension and new tariffs introduced by former U.S. President Donald Trump.
Right now, global demand for oil is rising again, especially during the summer, and oil prices are recovering slightly. Brent crude, one of the world’s main oil benchmarks, is trading just under $70 per barrel. But some experts warn that if production continues to rise while the world economy slows down, we might have too much oil on the market, which could push prices back down.
The Politics Behind the Oil Decisions
Oil prices are very sensitive to global political events. Former President Donald Trump, for example, is pressuring countries that buy oil from Russia, threatening to place new sanctions unless there’s a ceasefire in Ukraine. If Russian oil is cut off from the market, it could quickly push prices back up again.
Just last week, Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister, Alexander Novak, met with Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, for important discussions. Both countries play a key role in OPEC+ and usually coordinate their strategies closely.
What This Means for Ghana
For Ghanaians, this global decision could have real effects at home. Ghana imports most of the fuel it uses, so changes in international oil prices directly impact fuel prices at the pump.
If oil prices go down due to the increased supply, Ghana’s fuel prices could also drop, offering relief to drivers, transport operators, and businesses. It might also help reduce pressure on the Ghana cedi, since we spend a lot of foreign currency importing fuel.
Lower fuel prices can help bring down transport fares, lower the cost of goods, and ease inflation overall. However, there are still risks. If global politics change suddenly — for instance, if Russian oil gets blocked or big economies slow down — prices could rise again.
So, while the OPEC+ decision offers a chance for some relief, Ghana’s fuel prices will still depend on how global events unfold and how carefully government and businesses manage the situation at home.
