The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) expects global oil demand to rebound sharply in 2027 after a slowdown this year, forecasting consumption growth of 2.6 million barrels a day as economic activity strengthens and oil inventories are replenished.
Demand is projected to rise to an average of 108.3 million barrels a day next year, compared with 105.7 million barrels a day in 2026, according to OPEC’s October Monthly Oil Market Report released on Oct. 13. The latest forecast represents an upward revision from the previous month’s assessment.
The outlook contrasts with a subdued 2026, when global oil demand is expected to increase by just 200,000 barrels a day, following a downward revision. Consumption in advanced economies is forecast to decline by about 210,000 barrels a day, while growth in non-OECD economies is expected to provide the principal support for global demand.
The projections underscore the growing importance of emerging markets to the oil industry’s longer-term growth prospects, even as near-term consumption remains uneven across regions and products.
OPEC’s forecast also points to a market in which geopolitical risks and shipping disruptions are influencing crude prices, physical oil availability and transportation costs. In September, the OPEC Reference Basket rose by $24.15 a barrel to an average of $110.59, while Brent crude futures climbed to $102.02 a barrel.
The report attributed the price increases largely to heightened tensions in the Middle East, disruptions to regional crude flows and strong demand for barrels available for immediate delivery.
Africa and emerging markets underpin demand
Africa is expected to remain an important contributor to oil consumption growth in 2026, alongside Latin America, as demand shifts increasingly towards developing economies.
OPEC forecasts oil demand in non-OECD countries to increase by about 390,000 barrels a day this year. Africa and Latin America are each expected to account for approximately 130,000 barrels a day of that growth, while Other Asia is projected to add 110,000 barrels a day and India 40,000 barrels a day.
The outlook reflects the role of transportation fuels in supporting consumption across developing markets. Non-OECD gasoline demand is forecast to rise by 160,000 barrels a day in 2026, while jet fuel and kerosene demand is expected to increase by 100,000 barrels a day and diesel by 60,000 barrels a day.
Continued economic activity in India and Other Asia, together with growth in global air travel, is expected to support consumption.
The picture is less favourable in some other major markets. China’s oil demand is projected to decline temporarily by about 60,000 barrels a day in 2026, while demand in the Middle East is expected to ease by around 70,000 barrels a day.
OPEC cautioned that some recent demand data, particularly for China, remain preliminary and could be revised upward.
In 2027, non-OECD economies are expected to account for about 2 million barrels a day of the projected 2.6 million-barrel-a-day increase in global consumption. OECD demand is forecast to contribute the remaining 500,000 barrels a day.
Supply disruptions lift crude prices
Oil prices rallied sharply in September as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East heightened concerns about near-term supply and shipping availability.
The OPEC Reference Basket averaged $110.59 a barrel, up from $86.44 in August. Brent futures rose by $13.94 to $102.02 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate futures increased by $13.24 to $95.69.
The Oman benchmark recorded a larger monthly gain, rising by $26.65 to $114.53 a barrel, reflecting concerns about Middle East supply availability and shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
The report said prices eased towards the end of September as signs of improving regional oil flows and increased spot sales reduced some supply concerns. The start of seasonal refinery maintenance also limited further gains.
The market’s structure reflected the immediate pressure on available supplies. Nearby crude contracts rose relative to contracts for later delivery, a pattern known as backwardation that can indicate tightness in the prompt market.
OPEC reported that the Brent futures spread between the first and third contract months widened to a backwardation of $8.24 a barrel in September. The corresponding spread for Oman crude widened to $13.04 a barrel.
The price surge also extended beyond crude oil. The report’s energy commodity price index rose by 25.7% in September from the previous month and was 70% higher than a year earlier. European natural gas prices increased by 20.4% during the month, reflecting geopolitical risk premiums, competition with Asian buyers for liquefied natural gas and concerns about storage levels ahead of winter.
The increases highlight how disruptions to energy supplies can affect fuel costs across multiple markets, with implications for refiners, transport operators and economies dependent on imported energy.
Supply growth remains concentrated outside OPEC’s cooperation group
Oil supply outside the Declaration of Cooperation, the framework that includes OPEC and participating non-OPEC producers, is forecast to expand by about 600,000 barrels a day in both 2026 and 2027.
Brazil, the United States, Canada and Argentina are expected to lead growth in 2026. In 2027, the main contributors are projected to include Qatar, Canada, Brazil and Argentina.
Liquids production from countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation, excluding crude oil, is expected to rise by 100,000 barrels a day to 8.8 million barrels a day in 2026, with a further increase to 8.9 million barrels a day forecast for 2027.
According to secondary sources cited by OPEC, crude production by participating countries rose by 900,000 barrels a day in September to average 39.07 million barrels a day.
Despite the anticipated supply growth outside the group, OPEC expects demand for crude produced by Declaration of Cooperation countries to fall to 42.1 million barrels a day in 2026, down 600,000 barrels a day from 2025. The figure was revised lower from the previous month’s assessment.
For 2027, however, demand for the group’s crude is forecast to rise to 43.9 million barrels a day, an increase of 1.8 million barrels a day from the 2026 projection.
The contrasting forecasts point to a market expected to strengthen next year, although the scale of the recovery will depend on the evolution of consumption, supply availability and inventory rebuilding.
Inventories remain below historical benchmarks
OECD commercial oil inventories increased by 36.6 million barrels in August to 2.808 billion barrels, according to preliminary data in the report.
Despite the monthly increase, stocks remained 57.5 million barrels below their level a year earlier and 8.8 million barrels below the latest five-year average. They were also 177.2 million barrels below the 2015–2019 average.
Commercial crude inventories rose by 29.5 million barrels during the month to 1.351 billion barrels, while refined-product stocks increased by 7.1 million barrels to 1.458 billion barrels.
The increase in inventories offers some near-term replenishment after earlier declines, but the broader stock figures show that supplies remain below several historical benchmarks.
OPEC’s 2027 demand forecast assumes that the expected slowdown in 2026 will be followed by stronger consumption and a substantial need to rebuild oil inventories. That replenishment is one of the factors underpinning the projected acceleration in global demand.
The report leaves the global economic growth outlook unchanged at 3% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027. India is forecast to expand by 6.6% this year and 6.5% next year, while China’s growth is projected at 4.6% and 4.5%, respectively.
For oil markets, the combination of steady economic growth, a projected demand rebound and supply risks creates a more complex outlook than the weak headline demand figure for 2026 alone suggests. The pace of inventory rebuilding, the strength of emerging-market consumption and the durability of Middle East supply disruptions will remain central to the balance between oil demand and production.
