The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) expects global oil demand to continue rising through 2050, rejecting projections of an imminent decline in fossil fuel consumption and arguing that all forms of energy will be needed to meet growing global demand.
In the foreword to OPEC’s 2026 World Oil Outlook, Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais said the group expects oil demand to reach 124 million barrels a day by 2050, with no peak in consumption visible over the forecast period.
The outlook projects global primary energy demand to rise by 23% between now and 2050, driven largely by economic and population growth in developing countries, expanding urbanization, industrialization, rising energy needs from data centres and efforts to improve energy access for underserved populations.
“Global primary energy demand will continue to expand,” Al Ghais said in the report, adding that growth would come “almost entirely from developing countries”.
The projections place OPEC at odds with some energy transition scenarios advanced by environmental groups and international agencies that foresee oil demand peaking within the next decade as countries accelerate decarbonization policies and electric vehicle adoption.
Instead, OPEC argued that policymakers are increasingly reassessing energy transition strategies amid concerns about energy security, affordability and the pace of net-zero policies.
“Many governments around the world continue to undergo a re-evaluation of energy policy frameworks,” Al Ghais said, citing growing recognition of the need to balance energy security, emissions reductions and sustainable development.
The group maintained that future energy demand would require contributions from all energy sources, including oil, natural gas and renewables, rather than a rapid shift away from hydrocarbons.
“The future is not one in which the world can choose some energies while disregarding others,” Al Ghais said.
OPEC said renewables are expected to record the strongest growth among energy sources through 2050, although oil is projected to retain the largest share of the global energy mix. Coal was identified as the only major fuel source expected to decline over the period.
The report also highlighted the scale of investment required to sustain future energy supply. OPEC estimates that the oil sector alone will require $17.7 trillion in investment between 2026 and 2050 to meet expected demand growth and maintain market stability.
At the same time, the organization argued for the importance of emissions reduction technologies, including carbon capture, utilization and storage, direct air capture and circular carbon economy frameworks, as part of broader efforts to address climate concerns while maintaining energy supply.
The latest outlook notes OPEC’s continued defense of long-term oil investment at a time when energy producers face increasing pressure from climate-focused investors and governments seeking to accelerate the transition toward lower-carbon energy systems.
