Africa remains the world’s leading producer of cocoa and a fast-growing force in coffee, but the continent captures less than 10% of the global value generated from these commodities, according to the latest Afreximbank African Commodity Index (AACI) for the first half of 2025.
Structural inefficiencies, weak value chain integration, and logistical bottlenecks continue to limit Africa’s earnings from its agricultural exports, especially cocoa and coffee.
The report highlights that cocoa, which accounts for roughly 75% of global output, and coffee, which saw a 12.1% increase in African production in the 2023/2024 season, are both losing ground on value capture. Despite Africa’s production boom, particularly in coffee where the continent outpaced South America’s 9.8% growth, prices have slumped due to global oversupply. The 2024/25 season closed with an estimated surplus of 8 million bags globally, putting pressure on prices.
For cocoa, the story is more volatile. While Côte d’Ivoire’s cocoa arrivals initially outpaced the previous year, mid-year rains raised fears of black pod disease, creating price instability. Compounding this is sluggish demand from key markets in Europe and North America, reflected in weak grinding data, a signal of faltering processing activity. This has left prices fluctuating throughout H1 2025.
Afreximbank identifies the fundamental issue: African economies export largely unprocessed agricultural goods, exposing them to global price swings while forgoing the higher margins that come from value-added processing. Post-harvest losses, estimated at 30–40% in some chains, poor storage infrastructure, and fragmented markets remain persistent obstacles.
The pricing gap between global benchmarks and African free-on-board (FOB) export prices has widened, particularly for cocoa. This is due to limited local processing capacity and a lack of bargaining power in global markets, leaving African producers as price takers.
Bridging this gap is now seen as critical to economic resilience. The report calls for a combination of investments in processing infrastructure, trade logistics, and institutional reforms to support value chain development. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is cited as a key platform to foster integrated agro-industrial corridors and harmonised standards that can boost competitiveness and intra-African trade.
Despite the downward trend in prices, Afreximbank’s medium-term outlook for cocoa remains “neutral to bullish,” citing production shortfalls and weather risks in West Africa, although demand-side risks persist. For coffee, the outlook is more bearish due to continuing global oversupply and weak consumption growth.
Without meaningful investment in processing and trade facilitation, Africa’s commodity-rich economies risk remaining vulnerable to cyclical downturns and missing out on billions in potential value.
