About a year after the cedi stayed stable and departed from its usual dance of constant depreciation, policy think tank C-NERGY says the time for the country to lock in the gains in the currency is now.
Given the impact of the cedi’s constant depreciation against major currencies on critical areas of the economy, such as debt, inflation, and cost of living, C-NERGY is urging authorities not to mistake the progress in the past year for permanent recovery.
In its latest thought leadership report titled “A Year After the Cedi Rally: Reflection and the Path to Sustained Stabilisation,” policy think tank C‑NERGY argues that the currency’s recent strength must now be carefully anchored to prevent a reversal.
In the series cited by The High Street Journal, the group argued that Ghana’s improved exchange rate performance has helped calm markets and restore confidence. However, lingering global uncertainties mean the gains could easily be undone without deliberate policy action.
To secure the progress made so far, C-NERGY proposes two key strategic anchors: strengthening foreign exchange inflows and managing import pressures.
Anchor One: Strengthening Foreign Exchange Inflows
C-NERGY says Ghana must ensure that the country’s major sources of foreign exchange continue to flow through formal and transparent channels.
Key inflow drivers such as gold exports, cocoa earnings, remittances from the diaspora, and trade receipts must be efficiently captured within the financial system.
The think tank is of the view that if these inflows remain stable and well managed, they will provide a stronger and more predictable supply of foreign currency, which can help to sustain the cedi’s stability.
The think tank notes that the recent appreciation of the cedi has partly been supported by improved inflows. Maintaining that momentum, it argues, will be critical to preventing renewed pressure on the currency.
“Gold, cocoa, remittances, and trade receipts must continue flowing through formal channels efficiently and transparently,” C-NERGY proposed.
Anchor Two: Managing Import Pressures
The second pillar focuses on managing external shocks that drive demand for foreign currency, particularly energy imports.
C-NERGY warns that geopolitical tensions, especially the escalating confrontation involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, are already influencing global commodity prices.
For instance, the conflict has pushed crude oil prices higher, with Brent crude jumping by about 10 percent between February 28 and March 2, 2026, during the early days of the crisis.
The situation, C-NERGY fears, could worsen if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a corridor through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas passes, is disrupted. In such a scenario, oil prices could surge to as high as US$130 per barrel.
For Ghana, the implications are significant. It reveals that although the country produces roughly 180,000 barrels of crude oil per day, it still relies heavily on imported refined petroleum products for domestic consumption.
More than 80 percent of the fuel used locally is imported, although the NPA says the country now has the capacity to refine 50% of its needs. With this high import, higher global oil prices would sharply increase the country’s import bill.
“Oil price hikes put upward pressure on demand for US dollars as this would drastically increase Ghana’s oil-related import bill, which stood at US$5.1 billion for 2025. Though Ghana produces about 180,000 bpd, it is heavily reliant on the importation of finished products, constituting more than 80% of total petroleum product consumption,” C-NERGY noted.
Ghana’s oil-related imports alone reached about US$5.1 billion in 2025. When oil prices rise, importers require more US dollars to pay for shipments, placing additional pressure on the cedi.
Pump Prices Could Rise Soon
C-NERGY warns that the first signs of these global shocks could soon appear at the pump. Fuel prices, the report suggests, may begin to climb as early as the second pricing window of March 2026 if current global trends persist.
But the group cautions that relying on temporary reductions in imports to protect the cedi would be a risky strategy. Short-term demand compression, it argues, cannot replace long-term structural reforms.
“Fuel prices at the pump are projected to be significantly affected starting as early as the second pricing window of March 2026. Therefore, temporary compression of import demand cannot serve as the basis for long-term currency stability,” it maintained.
Locking the Gains
Ultimately, C-NERGY believes the cedi’s recent rally presents an opportunity, but only if the gains are carefully consolidated.
By strengthening foreign exchange inflows and strategically managing import pressures, the country can transform the current stability into a durable foundation for economic growth.
Without those anchors, the report warns, Ghana risks watching the hard-won gains of the past year gradually slip away.
