After recording a staggering GHC 16 billion loss last year, a figure widely described as the “expensive cost” for taming rampant inflation, all eyes are now on the central bank to see if there will be a turnaround or the past will repeat itself on the 2026 balance sheet.
This means the ghost of 2025’s huge losses continues to haunt the corridors of the Bank of Ghana (BoG) as 2026 progresses.
It is worth noting that the broader economy has shown signs of cooling, signaling that the cost incurred by the BoG was not in vain.
However, it appears the conditions that existed in 2025, leading to the staggering losses, still exist in 2026. The huge divergence in interest rates suggests that the BoG might once again be headed for a significant financial deficit. However, it is still too early to conclude.
The Interest Rates Divergence
For the average Ghanaian, lower inflation usually signals a time for relief. However, in financial terms, a cost was paid by the BoG for the lower level of inflation. This is clearly reflected in the difference between the government’s Treasury bills and the Bank of Ghana Bills, widely known as OMO bills.
A higher than T-Bill OMO bill, the BoG is paying a premium or higher than the market rate to discourage the banks from pumping the excess cash into the economy to drive inflation. So they make it attractive for the banks to invest in the BoG bills, at a higher interest.
This was the chief culprit leading to the huge loss in 2025.
An analysis by The High Street Journal reveals that between January and April 2026, the cost for the government to borrow (T-Bill rate) money has plummeted.
The data from the BoG reveals that the 91-day T-bill, which started the year at 11.1169%, has crashed to just 4.9244% as of late April.
This “crash” is actually good news for the national budget; it means the government is paying far less interest on its debt. However, in a startling twist, the Bank of Ghana is not following suit with its own internal instruments.
According to recent data, the 14-day OMO bill, the tool the BoG uses to “mop up” excess cash from the banking system, remains stubbornly high. While the government is paying under 5% for 91-day money, the BoG was still paying nearly 12% (11.9946%) for 14-day money as recently as mid-March.
The “Negative Carry” Trap
This phenomenon creates a situation that the experts name as “negative carry”. To keep inflation low and the cedi stable, the BoG must pull excess money out of the system so it isn’t spent, which would drive prices up.
But to do this, they are effectively buying cash at a premium. By mid-March, the BoG was paying an interest rate of 11.9946% for two-week liquidity.
Interestingly, on that very same day, the market value for 91-day liquidity (the T-bill rate) was only 4.7100%.
The practical implication is that the central bank is paying nearly three times the market rate to keep money out of circulation. If the BoG’s own income is tied to the now-falling market rates, but its expenses (the OMO bills) are locked in at these higher levels, the gap between what they earn and what they pay is widening.
Does Lower Inflation Help or Hurt the BoG?
Ironically, the very success of the BoG’s mission, bringing inflation down, might be the driver of its next loss. As inflation falls, market interest rates for T-bills naturally drop.
But if the BoG feels it must maintain high OMO rates to prevent that excess cash from flowing back into the economy and reigniting inflation, it remains stuck in an expensive cycle.
The current data suggests that the BoG is prioritizing price stability over its own profit and loss (P&L). While this might be the right move for the ordinary Ghanaian trying to afford bread and fuel, it raises serious questions about the central bank’s capital position.
The 2026 Outlook: A Repeat Performance?
While it is too early to be definitive, the trajectory is concerning. For the BoG to avoid another multi-billion cedi loss, one of two things must happen.
Market rates must rise to meet the OMO, and the BoG must aggressively cut its OMO rates to align with the government’s 4.9%–6.9% range.
As long as the BoG continues to pay 12% for money that the market says is only worth 5%, the central bank is effectively subsidizing the banking sector’s liquidity at its own expense.
If these trends persist throughout the remainder of 2026, the “cost of keeping inflation low” may once again lead to billions of losses on the BoG balance sheet at the end of the year.
