Brent crude slipped for a third straight session on Friday, falling below the $63 per barrel mark as hopes for fresh peace talks in the Russia–Ukraine conflict collided with new sanctions and growing uncertainty across global oil markets.
The benchmark was last trading at $62.39 on Friday morning, down 1.56% from the previous day and setting up a weekly loss, as traders digested an unexpected signal from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.
In a move that caught many market watchers off guard, Zelenskiy indicated he was willing to consider a US–Russia drafted peace blueprint, a document that reportedly includes territorial concessions by Ukraine and the lifting of Western sanctions on Moscow.
The possibility that sanctions might ease has stirred concerns that Russian oil exports could surge again, adding fresh barrels into an already fragile market and amplifying oversupply fears.
But skepticism is just as widespread. European diplomats were quick to caution that such a deal is far from guaranteed, describing the proposals as politically explosive and diplomatically complex. Any shift in sanctions would require intense negotiations among Western allies, many of whom remain firmly opposed to rewarding Russia with economic relief.
Still, even the hint of a breakthrough was enough to rattle traders, who began pricing in the chance of higher Russian exports in the months ahead.
Sanctions Bite Even as Peace Talk Rumors Build
Complicating matters further, new US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, two of Russia’s largest oil companies, officially took effect on Friday. The measures are already disrupting global flows, with as much as 48 million barrels of Russian crude now stranded at sea, unable or unwilling to dock as buyers avoid running afoul of US restrictions.
Ordinarily, such a disruption would tighten supply and lift prices. But the sanctions news was overshadowed by the peace-talk momentum, creating a push-and-pull effect that left traders unsure of which direction the market might take next.
The uncertainty has forced major buyers to scramble. India, one of Russia’s most reliable customers since the start of the war, attracted by heavy discounts, is now searching for alternative suppliers, raising questions about how long Russia can sustain shipments under tightening restrictions.
Weakness Extends Beyond the Headlines
Friday’s decline deepened what has already been a soft patch for global oil. Over the past month, Brent has slipped 0.32%, and compared to last year, it is down a striking 17%, reflecting weaker demand expectations, geopolitical volatility, and inconsistent supply signals.
Though still far removed from the historic peak of $147.50 seen in July 2008, Brent’s recent losses highlight how sensitive the market remains to even the faintest political shifts.
For now, traders are caught between the immediate supply squeeze created by US sanctions and the long-term oversupply threat posed by potential peace negotiations. With Zelenskiy expected to speak with US President Donald Trump in the coming days, the market is bracing for more volatility, and perhaps more surprises.
