Brent crude slipped below $64 a barrel on Monday, pulling back after four straight weeks of gains as markets digested a mix of easing geopolitical tensions, looming trade risks, and uneven supply signals.
The benchmark fell 0.61% to $63.74 a barrel, trimming some of the momentum it had built over the past month. Even so, prices remain about 2.7% higher than a month ago, though still more than 20% below last year’s levels.
Investor nerves around Iran, which had bolstered oil prices in recent weeks, have calmed. President Trump signaled that military action could be delayed following Iran’s pledge not to execute protesters. Yet the shadow of potential escalation remains, keeping a subtle risk premium in play.
At the same time, global demand concerns are back in focus. Trump’s new 10% tariff on goods from eight European countries, potentially rising to 25% in June, has traders questioning how far trade tensions could slow economic growth and, in turn, energy consumption.
Supply-side dynamics offer a mixed picture. While expectations of a global surplus weigh on prices, disruptions in key regions, including Kazakhstan’s troubled exports through the Black Sea, remind markets that supply bottlenecks can still tighten.
For now, Brent appears caught in a delicate balancing act. Geopolitical risks are easing, but trade uncertainty and regional supply hiccups keep the market on edge.
