Brent crude prices rebounded on Friday after falling more than 2% in the previous session, as a U.S. threat to maintain an indefinite naval blockade of Iran renewed fears of further disruption to oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent futures rose about 1% to around $88 a barrel, recovering from Thursday’s decline when markets focused on weaker global demand forecasts and a sharp build in U.S. crude inventories. Both Brent and U.S. crude were still on track for weekly gains of about 4%.
The latest move reflects the competing forces driving the oil market. While the International Energy Agency and OPEC have lowered their demand outlooks, continued disruption around the Strait of Hormuz is keeping supply risks firmly in focus.
The United States has threatened to maintain a naval blockade of Iran indefinitely as efforts to resolve the conflict remain stalled, raising concerns that crude shipments through the strategic waterway could face further disruption. Shipping traffic through Hormuz remains below its August average, with nine commodity vessels passing through on Thursday compared with an average of 12 per day, according to Kpler data cited by Reuters.
The Strait of Hormuz remains critical to the global oil market, and uncertainty over its reopening has already forced the IEA to revise its supply outlook. The agency expects global oil supply to fall by 4.3 million barrels per day, or about 4%, in 2026, as the conflict continues to disrupt production and exports.
Demand, however, is moving in the opposite direction. Higher prices and the prolonged conflict are weighing on consumption, with the IEA cutting its global oil demand outlook this week. That weakness helped drive Thursday’s sell-off, alongside a larger-than-expected increase in U.S. crude inventories.
The result is a market caught between weakening demand and an increasingly constrained supply outlook, leaving prices sensitive to developments around the conflict and the future of shipping through Hormuz.
As of Friday, Brent was up about 1.02% on the day and 3.54% over the past month, while remaining more than 33% higher than a year ago.
