Brent crude rose to $100.54 a barrel on Thursday, reversing the previous day’s decline as the market weighed recovering oil supplies from the Middle East against continued uncertainty over U.S.-Iran negotiations.
The benchmark gained 2.56% from Wednesday, taking its increase over the past month to 5.14% and its year-on-year rise to 56.83%, according to CFD data tracking Brent crude.
The increase came as oil shipments from the region moved closer to pre-war levels, while Saudi Arabia continued restoring its ability to move crude through its East-West pipeline.
Middle East oil flows recover
Crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have increased as some oil producers restore exports disrupted by the conflict.
Estimates indicate that flows through the strategic waterway have reached about 13.2 million barrels per day, while Saudi Arabia has restored about half the capacity of its East-West pipeline.
The pipeline allows Saudi Arabia to transport crude from its eastern oil fields to the Red Sea, providing an alternative export route that reduces its reliance on the Strait of Hormuz.
Saudi Arabia has also resumed tanker loadings from the Red Sea port of Yanbu after restarting the pipeline, according to Reuters. Goldman Sachs estimates that Gulf oil exports, including shipments that are difficult to track, have recovered to about 23.3 million barrels per day, roughly in line with the region’s 2025 average.
The recovery means more crude is reaching international buyers after weeks of disruption, easing some of the supply pressure that had pushed prices higher.
Iran talks remain unresolved
The recovery in oil flows has not settled concerns about whether supplies can continue at current levels.
Iranian government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani said Tehran had received a U.S. proposal concerning the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
The waterway is a major route for global oil shipments, meaning continued disruption could limit the amount of crude reaching international markets.
The United States and Iran have yet to reach an agreement to end the conflict. Qatar has been involved in efforts to facilitate communication between the two sides, while Iran has said it received a U.S. response to its latest proposal for reviving a ceasefire.
U.S. President Donald Trump has also denied reports that Washington was prepared to offer Iran sanctions relief and release frozen Iranian funds in exchange for steps on its nuclear programme.
With no agreement yet in place, the outlook for the Strait of Hormuz remains an important factor for oil traders.
OPEC+ expected to keep November targets unchanged
The supply outlook will also depend on the next decision from OPEC+.
The producer group is expected to keep its November oil production targets unchanged when it meets on Sunday, according to two people familiar with the matter cited by Reuters.
Keeping the targets unchanged would leave the market focused largely on actual oil flows from the Middle East and developments in the U.S.-Iran negotiations.
Meanwhile, U.S. crude inventories rose by 922,000 barrels to 427.3 million barrels in the week ended September 25, according to the Energy Information Administration. Analysts had expected inventories to decline by about 264,000 barrels.
However, U.S. gasoline inventories fell by 1.7 million barrels and distillate stocks, including diesel and heating oil, declined by 2.3 million barrels, reflecting continued demand for refined fuels.
Brent remains above $100
The latest price movement leaves Brent well above the levels seen before the conflict, despite the recovery in regional oil exports.
More crude is now moving through the Gulf and Saudi Arabia has restored part of its alternative export route, but the absence of a lasting agreement between Washington and Tehran leaves uncertainty over whether those flows can continue without further disruption.
Brent’s return above $100 therefore comes as the market weighs improving oil supplies against continued uncertainty over the conflict and the future of the Strait of Hormuz.
