Brent crude prices eased on Tuesday after climbing to a near three-week high the previous day, bringing some relief to oil-importing nations in Africa such as Ghana, which would have faced additional pressure on fuel import bills if the rally had sustained.
Analysts, however, caution that it may be too early to conclude prices will remain subdued, given the persistent geopolitical risks around Russia’s war in Ukraine.
On Monday, Brent surged to $68.80 per barrel, its highest level since early August, as Ukraine escalated its campaign of drone attacks against Russian oil refineries and export infrastructure. The strikes hit 10 refineries and disrupted about 17% of Russia’s refining capacity, equivalent to 1.1 million barrels per day. This was the most serious blow to Moscow’s energy sector in months and underscored Kyiv’s intent to challenge the perception that it is losing ground in the conflict.
The attacks, analysts said, created gasoline shortages across southern Russia, Crimea, and even as far as Vladivostok, forcing motorists to switch to more expensive fuels. Russia had already tightened fuel exports in July to meet peak domestic summer demand, meaning the refinery outages are likely to have a knock-on effect on domestic supply and revenues.
Since oil and gas contribute roughly a quarter of Moscow’s budget revenues, vital for sustaining its surging defense spending, the strikes hit at the core of President Vladimir Putin’s war chest.
READ ALSO
Global traders reacted swiftly to the developments, building in a fresh geopolitical risk premium that sent Brent higher despite otherwise bearish market fundamentals. The rally was further fueled by uncertainty over U.S. sanctions, with President Donald Trump warning that harsher measures could be imposed if no progress is made toward a peace deal in the next two weeks.
However, latest checks by The High Street Journal on Tuesday showed Brent trading lower at $68.09 per barrel, down $0.71 or 1.03% from the previous settlement. While the dip reflects some cooling after Monday’s surge, analysts warn that the volatility is far from over. With Ukraine striking at the heart of Russia’s oil infrastructure and Western sanctions squeezing its exports, the risk of renewed upward pressure on crude prices remains elevated.
For energy-importing economies such as Ghana, this volatility underscores the delicate balance between global geopolitics and domestic fuel pricing. Any sustained spike in oil prices could translate into higher pump prices, increased transport costs, and inflationary pressure on households and businesses. For now, the easing provides a short-term breather, but markets remain on edge, bracing for the next development in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
