As 2025 gradually gets to a close, the Bank of Ghana has announced that its last Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting for the year will be held from Monday, November 24, to Wednesday, November 26, 2025.
This is the 127th regular meeting of the committee and it is expected to assess recent economic developments and determine the next direction for the policy rate.
The three-day meeting will end with a press conference on Wednesday, November 26, where the central bank is expected to announce its policy decision. The announcement could mark a turning point for interest rates for businesses.
What the Analysts See
Ahead of the meeting, some market watchers have been analyzing the economic events and have predicted the probable outcome after the session.
Many research firms and economists have been signaling growing confidence that the MPC will ease its monetary stance this month in response to falling inflation and a stronger cedi.
IC Research, in its latest outlook, predicts a 250 to 300 basis points cut, pegging its base case at 19 percent. The firm argues that headline inflation’s steady decline and the improving real interest rate space create room for a “substantial but cautious” reduction.
Similarly, Databank Research foresees a measured easing, saying inflation is on a downward path and could reach between 10 and 12 percent by the end of the year. However, it cautions that the MPC may prefer gradual adjustments to avoid reversing progress on price stability.
This indicates that the consensus expectation is for a rate cut; however, the debate lies in how deep that cut will be and how soon the Bank can move without reigniting inflationary pressures.
The Risks Ahead
Despite the policy rate cut expectation, analysts agree the Bank of Ghana must tread carefully. The biggest threat to any rate cut lies in rising utility tariffs expected early next year, which could fuel inflation once again.
Fiscal risks also pose a challenge. It is feared that if government borrowing and expenditure accelerate, it could undercut the disinflation momentum and force the MPC to hold rates higher for longer.
Other experts warn that inflation remains sticky, and exchange rate pressures could reemerge if foreign inflows weaken. These factors mean the central bank’s easing path must be strategic.
The Bottomline
The upcoming MPC meeting will therefore test the central bank’s confidence in Ghana’s economic recovery. For businesses and consumers, the stakes are high. A cut could signal lower borrowing costs and fresh momentum for growth, while a hold would reflect the MPC’s cautious stance amid lingering risks.
Either way, November’s meeting will set the tone for monetary policy heading into 2026 and determine whether the Bank of Ghana believes the economy is stable enough to shift from fighting inflation to supporting growth.
