Ghana’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has signaled that further policy easing could be on the horizon, following extensive deliberations at its November 2025 meeting. Members noted that inflation has steadily declined, macroeconomic conditions have improved, and the domestic banking sector is gradually resuming credit growth, creating room for a more accommodative monetary stance.
Inflation and Real Rates Driving Considerations
Several MPC members highlighted that headline inflation has moderated consistently over the past ten months, supported by stable exchange rates, easing food and oil prices, and anchored expectations. Despite this disinflation, real interest rates remain relatively high, constraining private-sector credit growth and investment. These conditions prompted discussions that the central bank could further reduce policy rates if inflation continues its downward trend.
Stronger External and Domestic Conditions Support Flexibility
The Committee noted improved external buffers, including rising international reserves and a narrowing current account deficit, alongside steady GDP growth and positive business sentiment. These developments provide additional confidence that the economy could absorb further policy easing without destabilizing the cedi or undermining fiscal sustainability.
Forward Guidance and Policy Outlook
In their submissions, members indicated that if inflation continues on its projected downward path through December 2025, the MPC could consider additional rate adjustments in its January 2026 meeting. The move would align policy rates more closely with market conditions, supporting credit expansion, lowering borrowing costs, and sustaining the ongoing recovery momentum.
Balancing Risks and Growth
While the majority of members expressed optimism about growth prospects, some cautioned that external shocks or fiscal pressures could require careful monitoring. Nonetheless, the overall tone of the November deliberations points to a readiness to support economic recovery through targeted monetary easing in the coming months.
