The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of Ghana is expected to deliver a second successive policy rate cut at its September 2025 meeting, as disinflation gains momentum.
According to IC Research, a leading market intelligence firm, the nominal policy rate of 25 percent currently translates to an ex-post real policy rate of 13.5 percent.
Without a rate cut, this could widen further to 15.4 percent by September 2025. This, the firm noted, provides ample room for another deep cut.
“In view of our cautious stance on utility tariff risk, we estimate a likely 300 basis points cut in the policy rate to 22.0 percent,” IC Research said.
Inflation has been easing steadily, dropping to 11.5 percent in August 2025, the lowest level since October 2021 and below the authorities’ end-2025 target of 11.9 percent. In July, the MPC cut its benchmark rate by 300 basis points to 25 percent.
IC Research forecasts continued disinflation in September, supported by a favourable base drift effect.
It anticipates a fourth consecutive month of annual transport fare deflation, as the 15 percent reduction in fares in May 2025 continues to reflect in the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
Additionally, the resumption of industrial fishing activities and ongoing crop harvests are expected to sustain food disinflation.
“Ultimately, we project a more modest uptick in the overall CPI compared to the surge in September 2024, yielding a year-to-date inflation of 9.6 percent in September 2025 (-190 basis points), despite an estimated month-on-month acceleration to 1.0 percent,” the firm explained.
The anticipated cut would mark another milestone in Ghana’s monetary easing cycle, aimed at supporting growth while consolidating recent gains in price stability.
