As Ghana’s bailout programme gradually grinds to an end in 2026, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) says Ghana is laying the right foundation to avoid falling back into the old cycle of overspending and rising debt.
Many analysts and economists are sceptical about Ghana’s fate beyond the programme after the IMF leaves town. These “pessimists” fear the country will likely plunge back to the old ways, eroding the gains chalked up under the programme.
Speaking at a press briefing in Washington, IMF Communications Director Julie Kozack praised Ghana for introducing lasting reforms that go beyond the Fund’s direct support, noting that these steps are designed to keep government finances in check long after the IMF leaves.
“Ghana has made meaningful progress in laying the foundation for fiscal discipline beyond the IMF programme. Key reforms, and I’ll talk about a few of them, which are lasting reforms, which we expect to last beyond the programme,” she said at Washington on Thursday.
The fund recognizes that Ghana has had a very predictable pattern. It runs into a crisis, turns to the IMF, stabilizes things for a while, and then slips back into fiscal indiscipline. But this time, the IMF says there is reason to be more optimistic.
Julie Kozack indicates that Ghana is not only fixing its short-term problems but also changing the rules of the game with at least three major reforms.
The communications director of the IMF talks about the new Fiscal Responsibility Framework. She says Ghana now has a law that requires the government to always run a primary budget surplus of at least 1.5% of GDP (that’s the budget balance before paying interest on debt). Simply put, the rule forces the government to spend less than it earns, except in emergencies.
She further referred to the public debt ceiling, which is a new debt target of 45% of GDP meant to keep borrowing in check. For a country that has often borrowed beyond its means, this acts like a speed limit on the economy.
The Independent Fiscal Council, she adds, is a significant reform. This new body will act like a financial referee, keeping an eye on how the government spends and warning if it starts to break its own rules.
Together, these reforms create a system where discipline is not just about political will, but about rules and watchdogs that future governments will find harder to ignore.
Analysts say maintaining fiscal discipline beyond the prying eyes of the IMF must be imperative and not just a technical jargon. It affects the real lives of citizens.
It also means businesses can plan better, investors feel safer bringing in money, and inflation is less likely to spiral out of control.
The challenge, however, many believe, is political. Ghana will be heading into another crucial elections in 2028, soon after the IMF leaves, and history shows that discipline often slips when politics takes center stage.
The IMF’s optimism rests on whether the new rules will be respected by all sides, no matter who is in power.
