For most of the past year, Ghana’s month-on-month (MoM) inflation data followed a relatively stable, if stubborn, trajectory. From the sharp rise of late 2024 to the cautious cooling of early 2025, prices were still increasing, just at a slower pace. That changed dramatically in June.
According to data from the Ghana Statistical Service, MoM inflation fell by 1.2% in June 2025, the steepest monthly drop in consumer prices in over a year. It marks a sharp break from the previous five months of modest but consistent price increases and represents the first significant deflationary move since August 2024, when prices dipped by 0.7%.
From Moderation to Reversal
Ghana’s MoM inflation had been gradually decelerating since the start of the year:
- February 2025: +1.3%
- March 2025: +0.2%
- April 2025: +0.8%
- May 2025: +0.7%
Each of these months showed signs of easing inflationary pressure, but still positive growth in consumer prices. June 2025, however, flipped the script entirely.
Not only did inflation slow; it went negative, signalling that average prices for goods and services actually declined across the economy during the month.
A Break in the 13-Month Trend
The -1.2% figure is the lowest MoM inflation recorded since at least June 2024. Even compared to the deflation recorded in August 2024 (-0.7%), June’s number stands out as a much sharper contraction, nearly double the decline.
Unlike August, which typically benefits from seasonal harvest-driven price drops, June doesn’t fall within Ghana’s traditional softening period. Yet the data shows an even steeper decline. This points not to a seasonal quirk but to deeper structural shifts in the economy.
One of the clearest signals comes from the currency market. The cedi has remained remarkably stable throughout the second quarter of 2025, a stark contrast to the volatility seen in previous years. That stability has dampened import-related price pressures, particularly on food, fuel, and manufactured goods, giving inflation less room to build at the ports and in wholesale markets.
At the same time, fuel prices have been trending downwards, thanks to a combination of falling global oil prices and the maturing effects of local deregulation policies. Transport costs, a key inflation driver, have flattened out or even declined in many urban centres, filtering into the broader Consumer Price Index.
More broadly, several macroeconomic indicators have shown steady improvement. Gross international reserves are holding firm, core inflation (which strips out volatile items like food and energy) continues to ease, and consumer confidence surveys point to growing optimism about economic direction. Together, these shifts suggest that Ghana’s economy is not just cooling temporarily; it may be entering a more stable, less inflationary phase.
Inflation Falls Below T-Bill Yields — A Policy Opening Emerges
June also marked a quiet milestone: for the first time in years, Ghana’s headline (year-on-year) inflation dropped below short-term Treasury bill rates. With inflation at 13.7% and T-bill yields still hovering around 14%, real returns on government securities are now positive, a reversal from the inflation-eaten returns of previous quarters.
This shift gives the Bank of Ghana room to breathe. The sharp decline in MoM inflation strengthens the case for interest rate easing, especially with headline inflation showing a consistent downward trajectory. Borrowing costs for the government, businesses, and consumers could see relief if the central bank judges that the price risk has moderated.
