Ghanaians and businesses are finally breathing a sigh of relief this year as inflation fell into the long-desired single-digit range, but there is an unexpected twist as the World Bank projects Ghana and 8 other countries to end the year with double-digit inflation.
This development was contained in the World Bank’s October 2025 Africa Pulse report. The report anticipates that Ghana and the eight other countries are expected to battle inflationary pressures despite the gains made so far.
The report, which tracks economic trends across 47 African economies, notes that while inflation across the region is cooling rapidly, Ghana remains on the list of countries likely to experience two-digit inflation by year-end.
The list includes countries such as Nigeria, Angola, Ethiopia, Malawi, São Tomé and Príncipe, Sudan, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.
“Nine countries are still projected to have two-digit rates in 2025 despite the reduction of inflation (Angola, Ethiopia, Ghana, Malawi, Nigeria, São Tomé and Príncipe, Sudan, Zambia, and Zimbabwe),” the report indicated.
This projection comes despite the Bank of Ghana’s recent assurance that it will keep inflation within the target of 8+/2, after months of consistent monetary tightening followed by significant rate cuts.
The IMF has also recently reiterated that Ghana’s inflation is forecasted to remain within the target band. According to the IMF Staff team lead that undertook the fifth review of the country’s $3billion bailout program, Ruben Atoyan, this projection is anchored on the macroeconomic stabilization efforts of the government.
“The positive momentum is expected to continue into 2026, with growth projected at 4.8%. Inflation is forecasted to remain within the Bank of Ghana’s (BoG) target band of 8+/-2, allowing for gradual monetary policy normalization,” Ruben Atoyan remarked after the review.
Ghana’s inflation rate has significantly dropped from nearly 55% in early 2023 to below 10% in 2025, signalling massive gains.
The World Bank’s reasoning points to underlying risks, such as including exchange rate volatility, energy cost fluctuations, and food supply challenges, that could reignite inflationary pressures before the year closes.
These, coupled with external shocks like global oil price swings and regional trade disruptions, could push Ghana’s inflation back into double digits if not carefully managed.
This is also coming at a time when many have already begun to feel a slight easing in prices, though not uniform. Should this projection by the World Bank materialize, it will confirm the perception of traders and some analysts that Ghana’s macroeconomic gains are not made to last.
The twist from the World Bank is an indication that the government and the central bank’s battle against inflation is far from over. Continued fiscal discipline, improved food supply chains, and stable exchange rates are needed to keep inflation in check.
Ghanaians may enjoy the current calm at the market stalls and fuel pumps, but the latest forecast is a subtle warning that the battle against inflation is not yet won.
