Fitch Solutions has revised Ghana’s 2025 economic growth forecast upward to 4.9% from its previous estimate of 4.2%, citing improved macroeconomic conditions, easing inflation, and a more stable cedi.
In its September 2025 Monthly Outlook, the UK-based research firm said Ghana’s economy is showing signs of steady recovery, despite challenges from fiscal tightening, elevated interest rates, and stagnant oil production.
The upgraded forecast comes on the back of a strong first quarter performance, where gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 5.3% year-on-year, led primarily by robust agricultural growth.
Fitch expects this positive momentum to continue into 2026, with growth projected at around 5.0%, supported by declining inflation, potential monetary policy easing, and increased public spending as Ghana’s IMF-supported programme approaches completion.
Data from the Ghana Statistical Service (GSS) shows that overall growth moderated to 4.5% in July 2025, compared to 8.3% during the same period last year.
Agriculture, however, remained the standout performer, expanding by 8.0%, a sharp rebound from 2.4% in July 2024.
Fitch also projects inflation to decline to 8.0% by the end of 2025, down from 11.5% in August, marking the lowest rate in four years.
Analysts say a combination of a firmer local currency, lower global energy prices, and improving investor sentiment is expected to boost consumer confidence and domestic demand.
While Fitch’s upgraded forecast is higher than the IMF’s 4.0% projection and the government’s 4.4% target in the 2025 national budget, the firm cautioned that maintaining the growth trajectory will require fiscal discipline, sustained structural reforms, and a stable macroeconomic environment.
“The outlook is promising, but Ghana’s recovery hinges on continued commitment to sound fiscal management and inflation control,” the report noted.
The upward revision signals renewed investor confidence in Ghana’s medium-term prospects, underpinned by improved price stability, a resilient agricultural sector, and strengthened policy credibility.
