The persistent shortfall in the government’s short-term market (T-bills) is biting hard, and it’s beginning to manifest in the government’s expenditure, putting the budget of the country at risk.
This is the observation of financial analyst, Mac Jordan Nartey, a senior research analyst at Laurus Africa.
The analysts observe that Ghana’s persistent undersubscription is beginning to bite hard, forcing government spending to fall far behind target. This, he says, is raising fresh concerns about the broader health of the economy.
Reports from the Bank of Ghana (BoG) auction results have revealed that the government has failed to meet its borrowing target on the T-bills market for 6 consecutive weeks. Sadly, the low performances are being recorded despite an increase in interest rates to woo investors.
The six consecutive shortfalls recorded in the T-bills market are now, Mac Jordan says are showing up clearly in the country’s fiscal performance, and the numbers tell a troubling story.
In an interview monitored by The High Street Journal, he referenced that to provisional figures from the latest budget reveal that the government had planned to spend roughly GH¢26 billion on capital projects, roads, schools, hospitals, water systems, and other infrastructure, within the first nine months of 2025.
However, by the end of that period, only about GH¢11 billion had actually been spent. That is less than half of what was planned.
The same gap appears in financing. The government expected to mobilize around GH¢15 billion in domestic financing over the period. Instead, it could raise only about GH¢7 billion, leaving a sizeable hole in the budget.
Mac Jordan Nartey explains that this shortfall is not happening in isolation. The undersubscription in the T-bills market, where the government raises short-term funds to support operations, is “feeding directly” into spending delays, leaving ministries and agencies without the resources they need to implement projects on time.
He was also quick to add that while some may interpret lower spending as fiscal discipline, the longer-term consequences could be damaging.
“As of the 9-month 2025, the government had planned to spend, for instance, about 26 billion in terms of Capex, but as of the same period, the government had just deployed about 11 billion in Capex. In terms of domestic financing, the government had expected, you know, financing around 15 billion. But as of the same period, the government had financing of just around 7 billion,” the analyst indicated.
“This tells the narrative of how the undersubscription is beginning to feed into government fiscal operations. In the near term, like I keep mentioning, in the near term, it may look, we may say that it comes from government discipline and the likes, but a prolonged trend would also dent investor sentiment and also dense growth, because we’ll need complementary effort from government expenditure to also keep growth intact,” he remarked.
With six straight weeks of T-bill shortfalls, despite rising interest rates, the analyst fears the situation could drag into the months ahead unless investor demand rebounds.
When the T-bill market stays weak, government cash flow remains constrained, and when cash flow is constrained, essential development projects slow down, workers wait longer to get paid, and the overall economy loses momentum.
As demonstrated by the expert, Ghana cannot afford a prolonged drought in the T-bills market. The longer it lasts, the more government spending will tighten, and the more difficult it becomes to sustain growth.
